Matchup Machine

Francisco Alvarez

matchup for Yu Darvish

135th out of 436 (Best 32%)

Yu Darvish

matchup for F. Alvarez

355th out of 568 (Worst 38%)

Leans in favor of Darvish

Francisco Alvarez has a 26.8% chance of reaching base vs Yu Darvish, which is 3.2% lower than Alvarez's typical expectations, and 2.4% lower than batters facing Darvish.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	26.8%	21.2%	3.4%	5.6%	12.2%	5.7%	24.7%
Alvarez	-3.2	-1.0	+0.7	+0.3	-1.9	-2.2	-1.8
Darvish	-2.4	-1.0	+0.1	+0.0	-1.2	-1.4	+1.3

Francisco Alvarez is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Yu Darvish is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Alvarez has an A- grade vs this particular release point.

Yu Darvish throws a Cutter 26% of the time. Francisco Alvarez hasn't faced this pitch from right handers very often

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Cutter (R)

26%

Slider (R)

26%

4-Seam (R)

21%

Sinker (R)

12%

Splitter (R)

Curve (R)

14% of Yu Darvish's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Francisco Alvarez has an A- grade against this type of pitch.

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 14%

+3%

Strong Challenge 8%

+3%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Weak Challenge 8%

+0%

Chaser 6%

Fringe Miss 12%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Likely Ball 17%

-2%

28% of Yu Darvish's pitches are classified as Medium Drop, which is 15% higher than the MLB average. Francisco Alvarez has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Drop 28%

+15%

Small Break 20%

+9%

15.9% of Francisco Alvarez's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.1% higher than the league average. Yu Darvish strikes out 20.3% of the batters he faces, which is 6.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +2.1% +6.7% 4%

Walk +0.8% -1.6% 41%

In Play -2.9% -5.1% 39%

On Base +0.9% -4.8% 31%

Hit +0.1% -3.2% 14%

Single -0.5% -1.6% 13%

2B / 3B +0.1% -1.2% 3%

Home Run +0.6% -0.5%

39.6% of Francisco Alvarez's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.2% higher than the league average. Yu Darvish induces Standard Grounders at a 34.2% rate, which is 0.2% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.3% +0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder +5.2% -0.2% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.7% -0.6% 14%

Low Screamer -3.0% -0.9% 9%

Rising Liner -1.1% -1.0% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.4% +0.5% 3%

Likely Homer +0.6% -1.1% 1%

No Doubter +2.2% +1.0% 20%

Routine Flyout -4.5% +1.7% 3%

Pop up +1.4% +0.4%

29.5% of Francisco Alvarez's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 5.2% higher than the league average. 21.5% of batted balls allowed by Yu Darvish are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +0.6% -1.1% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.5% +2.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph -7.2% +1.0% 19%

94 to 99 mph 0.0% +0.8% 24%

Above 100 mph +5.2% -2.8%

8.6% of Francisco Alvarez's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.8% lower than the league average. 12.4% of batted balls allowed by Francisco Alvarez are hit at this angle, which is 1.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +4.9% -1.1% 12%

-10 to 0° +3.1% -2.4% 8%

1 to 6° -3.5% +0.5% 18%

7 to 18° -2.3% -0.3% 15%

19 to 28° 0.0% -0.5% 11%

29 to 38° -2.8% +1.0% 7%

39 to 50° -1.8% 0.0% 8%

Above 50° +2.4% +2.9%

Francisco Alvarez has 2 plate appearances against Yu Darvish in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 2 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	2	2	1	0	0	1	1	0	0.500
Expected From Contact →			0.71	0.00	0.00	0.71			0.357

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-07-07	Single			71%	29%
2023-07-07	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

On the Way to the Plate

Contact and Outcomes

History