Matchup Machine

Otto Lopez

matchup for Yu Darvish

208th out of 436 (Best 48%)

Yu Darvish

matchup for Otto Lopez

294th out of 568 (Worst 48%)

Leans in favor of Lopez

Otto Lopez has a 28.3% chance of reaching base vs Yu Darvish, which is 1.9% lower than Lopez's typical expectations, and 0.9% lower than batters facing Darvish.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	28.3%	23.7%	2.4%	5.8%	15.5%	4.6%	18.2%
Lopez	-1.9	-0.7	+0.5	+0.8	-2.0	-1.3	-1.5
Darvish	-0.9	+1.6	-0.9	+0.3	+2.1	-2.5	-5.1

Otto Lopez is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Yu Darvish is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Lopez has a C grade vs this particular release point.

Yu Darvish throws a Cutter 26% of the time. Otto Lopez hasn't faced this pitch from right handers very often

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Cutter (R)

26%

Slider (R)

26%

4-Seam (R)

21%

Sinker (R)

12%

Splitter (R)

Curve (R)

14% of Yu Darvish's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Otto Lopez hasn't faced this type of pitch very often.

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 14%

+3%

Strong Challenge 8%

+3%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Weak Challenge 8%

+0%

Chaser 6%

Fringe Miss 12%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Likely Ball 17%

-2%

28% of Yu Darvish's pitches are classified as Medium Drop, which is 15% higher than the MLB average. Otto Lopez has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Drop 28%

+15%

Small Break 20%

+9%

11.1% of Otto Lopez's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 6.7% lower than the league average. Yu Darvish strikes out 20.3% of the batters he faces, which is 6.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Strikeout -6.7% +6.7% 5%

Walk -1.7% -1.6% 38%

In Play +8.4% -5.1% 39%

On Base +8.7% -4.8% 31%

Hit +10.3% -3.2% 14%

Single +5.6% -1.6% 13%

2B / 3B +6.1% -1.2% 3%

Home Run -1.4% -0.5%

42.5% of Otto Lopez's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 8.0% higher than the league average. Yu Darvish induces Standard Grounders at a 34.2% rate, which is 0.2% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +1.1% +0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder +8.0% -0.2% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.7% -0.6% 14%

Low Screamer -2.4% -0.9% 9%

Rising Liner -0.2% -1.0% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.7% +0.5% 3%

Likely Homer -2.3% -1.1% 1%

No Doubter -0.8% +1.0% 20%

Routine Flyout -3.4% +1.7% 3%

Pop up +0.0% +0.4%

25.5% of Otto Lopez's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 1.2% higher than the league average. 21.5% of batted balls allowed by Yu Darvish are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +4.4% -1.1% 21%

75 to 86 mph -1.8% +2.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph -2.9% +1.0% 19%

94 to 99 mph -0.9% +0.8% 24%

Above 100 mph +1.2% -2.8%

6.9% of Otto Lopez's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 4.6% lower than the league average. 12.4% of batted balls allowed by Otto Lopez are hit at this angle, which is 1.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +5.6% -1.1% 12%

-10 to 0° +1.0% -2.4% 8%

1 to 6° +2.4% +0.5% 18%

7 to 18° +1.8% -0.3% 15%

19 to 28° -3.4% -0.5% 11%

29 to 38° -4.6% +1.0% 7%

39 to 50° +0.3% 0.0% 8%

Above 50° -3.0% +2.9%

Otto Lopez has 2 plate appearances against Yu Darvish in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 2.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.06	0.02	0.03	0.01			0.029

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-05-29	Field Error
2024-05-29	Flyout	2%	3%		94%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

On the Way to the Plate

Contact and Outcomes

History