Matchup Machine

Will Smith

matchup for Yu Darvish

393rd out of 436 (Worst 10%)

Yu Darvish

matchup for Will Smith

347th out of 568 (Worst 39%)

Strong advantage for Smith

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	32.0%	21.6%	3.8%	5.8%	12.0%	10.4%	21.4%
Smith	-2.7	+0.7	+1.0	+0.6	-0.9	-3.4	+0.5
Darvish	+2.8	-0.6	+0.5	+0.3	-1.3	+3.4	-2.0

Will Smith is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Yu Darvish is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Smith has a C grade vs this particular release point.

Yu Darvish throws a Cutter 26% of the time. Will Smith has a D- grade against right-handed Cutters

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Cutter (R)

26%

Slider (R)

26%

4-Seam (R)

21%

Sinker (R)

12%

Splitter (R)

Curve (R)

14% of Yu Darvish's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Will Smith has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 14%

+3%

Strong Challenge 8%

+3%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Weak Challenge 8%

+0%

Chaser 6%

Fringe Miss 12%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Likely Ball 17%

-2%

28% of Yu Darvish's pitches are classified as Medium Drop, which is 15% higher than the MLB average. Will Smith has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Drop 28%

+15%

Small Break 20%

+9%

11.2% of Will Smith's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 5.7% lower than the league average. Yu Darvish strikes out 20.3% of the batters he faces, which is 6.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Strikeout -5.7% +6.7% 3%

Walk +3.0% -1.6% 38%

In Play +2.8% -5.1% 39%

On Base -1.9% -4.8% 31%

Hit -4.9% -3.2% 14%

Single -3.4% -1.6% 13%

2B / 3B -2.7% -1.2% 3%

Home Run +1.3% -0.5%

27.9% of Will Smith's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 6.5% lower than the league average. Yu Darvish induces Standard Grounders at a 34.2% rate, which is 0.2% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.5% +0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder -6.5% -0.2% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.6% -0.6% 14%

Low Screamer -0.7% -0.9% 9%

Rising Liner -2.1% -1.0% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.9% +0.5% 3%

Likely Homer +1.1% -1.1% 1%

No Doubter -0.1% +1.0% 20%

Routine Flyout +8.1% +1.7% 3%

Pop up -0.5% +0.4%

22.9% of Will Smith's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 1.4% lower than the league average. 21.5% of batted balls allowed by Yu Darvish are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -3.5% -1.1% 21%

75 to 86 mph -1.0% +2.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph 0.0% +1.0% 19%

94 to 99 mph +6.0% +0.8% 24%

Above 100 mph -1.4% -2.8%

16.7% of Will Smith's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 5.3% higher than the league average. 12.4% of batted balls allowed by Will Smith are hit at this angle, which is 1.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -4.4% -1.1% 12%

-10 to 0° -2.1% -2.4% 8%

1 to 6° -2.1% +0.5% 18%

7 to 18° -1.9% -0.3% 15%

19 to 28° +1.1% -0.5% 11%

29 to 38° +5.3% +1.0% 7%

39 to 50° +2.1% 0.0% 8%

Above 50° +1.8% +2.9%

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	32	29	6	1	0	5	4	3	0.207
Expected From Contact →			4.73	0.09	1.22	3.41			0.163

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-10-11	Flyout				100%
2024-10-11	GIDP			45%	54%
2024-10-06	Flyout				99%
2024-10-06	Groundout		17%	5%	77%
2024-10-06	Walk
2024-05-12	Strikeout
2024-05-12	Flyout		7%	6%	88%
2024-05-12	Groundout			36%	63%
2024-04-14	Walk
2024-04-14	Single		47%	20%	33%
2024-03-20	Flyout
2024-03-20	Walk
2023-08-04	Groundout			4%	96%
2023-08-04	Strikeout
2023-08-04	Single		23%	67%	10%
2023-05-05	Pop Out				100%
2023-05-05	Groundout			6%	94%
2023-05-05	Single		6%	66%	28%
2022-10-12	Pop Out				100%
2022-10-12	Single		1%	41%	58%
2022-10-12	Pop Out				100%
2022-09-02	Hit By Pitch
2022-09-02	Strikeout
2022-09-02	Flyout				100%
2022-08-07	Flyout				100%
2022-08-07	Groundout			3%	96%
2022-08-07	Lineout	1%	12%	10%	76%
2022-07-02	Flyout				99%
2022-07-02	Flyout				100%
2022-07-02	Home Run	8%	5%		87%
2022-04-23	Single			30%	70%
2022-04-23	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

On the Way to the Plate

Contact and Outcomes

History