Matchup Machine

Ryan Mountcastle

matchup for Yu Darvish

324th out of 436 (Worst 26%)

Yu Darvish

matchup for R. Mountcastle

278th out of 568 (Best 50%)

Moderate advantage for Mountcastle

Ryan Mountcastle has a 30.2% chance of reaching base vs Yu Darvish, which is 1.1% lower than Mountcastle's typical expectations, and 1.0% higher than batters facing Darvish.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	30.2%	25.7%	2.8%	7.4%	15.5%	4.5%	23.5%
Mountcastle	-1.1	-0.4	+0.2	+1.3	-1.9	-0.7	-1.3
Darvish	+1.0	+3.6	-0.4	+1.9	+2.1	-2.6	+0.1

Ryan Mountcastle is worse vs right-handed pitching. Yu Darvish is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Mountcastle has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Yu Darvish throws a Cutter 26% of the time. Ryan Mountcastle has a B grade against right-handed Cutters

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Cutter (R)

26%

Slider (R)

26%

4-Seam (R)

21%

Sinker (R)

12%

Splitter (R)

Curve (R)

14% of Yu Darvish's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Ryan Mountcastle has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 14%

+3%

Strong Challenge 8%

+3%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Weak Challenge 8%

+0%

Chaser 6%

Fringe Miss 12%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Likely Ball 17%

-2%

28% of Yu Darvish's pitches are classified as Medium Drop, which is 15% higher than the MLB average. Ryan Mountcastle has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Drop 28%

+15%

Small Break 20%

+9%

14.4% of Ryan Mountcastle's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 0.4% lower than the league average. Yu Darvish strikes out 20.3% of the batters he faces, which is 6.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

14%

Strikeout -0.4% +6.7% 6%

Walk -3.2% -1.6% 38%

In Play +3.6% -5.1% 39%

On Base +6.6% -4.8% 31%

Hit +9.8% -3.2% 14%

Single +4.3% -1.6% 13%

2B / 3B +4.7% -1.2% 3%

Home Run +0.8% -0.5%

30.7% of Ryan Mountcastle's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.7% lower than the league average. Yu Darvish induces Standard Grounders at a 34.2% rate, which is 0.2% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.3% +0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder -3.7% -0.2% 7%

Hard Grounder +2.0% -0.6% 14%

Low Screamer +1.0% -0.9% 9%

Rising Liner -1.3% -1.0% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.6% +0.5% 3%

Likely Homer -0.1% -1.1% 1%

No Doubter +0.5% +1.0% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.6% +1.7% 3%

Pop up -0.4% +0.4%

29.5% of Ryan Mountcastle's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 5.3% higher than the league average. 21.5% of batted balls allowed by Yu Darvish are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.6% -1.1% 21%

75 to 86 mph -0.4% +2.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph -0.9% +1.0% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.3% +0.8% 24%

Above 100 mph +5.3% -2.8%

12.2% of Ryan Mountcastle's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.8% higher than the league average. 12.4% of batted balls allowed by Ryan Mountcastle are hit at this angle, which is 1.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -3.3% -1.1% 12%

-10 to 0° +0.8% -2.4% 8%

1 to 6° +1.0% +0.5% 18%

7 to 18° -0.8% -0.3% 15%

19 to 28° +0.1% -0.5% 11%

29 to 38° +0.8% +1.0% 7%

39 to 50° +0.1% 0.0% 8%

Above 50° +1.4% +2.9%

Ryan Mountcastle has 3 plate appearances against Yu Darvish in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 3 with 2 strikeouts.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	1	0	0	1	2	0	0.333
Expected From Contact →			0.42	0.00	0.08	0.33			0.138

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-08-14	Strikeout
2023-08-14	Single		8%	33%	59%
2023-08-14	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

On the Way to the Plate

Contact and Outcomes

History