Matchup Machine

Connor Joe

matchup for Trevor Rogers

298th out of 436 (Worst 32%)

Trevor Rogers

matchup for Connor Joe

50th out of 568 (Best 10%)

Strong advantage for Joe

Connor Joe has a 35.9% chance of reaching base vs Trevor Rogers, which is 3.7% higher than Joe's typical expectations, and 1.8% higher than batters facing Rogers.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	35.9%	22.3%	2.2%	6.1%	14.0%	13.7%	19.2%
Joe	+3.7	+2.5	+0.3	+1.2	+1.0	+1.2	-5.6
Rogers	+1.8	-2.1	-0.5	+0.4	-1.9	+3.9	-0.4

Connor Joe is about the same vs left-handed pitching as he is against right. Trevor Rogers is left handed with a horizontal release toward the first base side. Joe has a C- grade vs this particular release point.

Trevor Rogers throws a 4-seam fastball 48% of the time. Connor Joe has a C grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

48%

Changeup (L)

26%

Slider (L)

18%

Sinker (L)

13% of Trevor Rogers's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has a D+ grade against this type of pitch.

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 13%

+2%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Fringe Miss 14%

+1%

Chaser 6%

+1%

Strong Challenge 5%

Likely Ball 19%

Weak Challenge 8%

-1%

Meatball 4%

-2%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

48% of Trevor Rogers's pitches are classified as Large Break Toward Third Base, which is 26% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has a D+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Large Break 48%

+26%

Offspeed (L) 26%

+14%

Fast Velo 20%

+10%

Medium Ride 23%

+9%

13.2% of Connor Joe's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.3% lower than the league average. Trevor Rogers strikes out 14.8% of the batters he faces, which is 0.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -2.3% -0.6% 3%

Walk +3.0% +0.2% 40%

In Play -0.7% +0.3% 39%

On Base +0.2% +0.7% 31%

Hit -2.8% +0.4% 14%

Single -1.1% +0.4% 13%

2B / 3B -0.7% +0.8% 3%

Home Run -1.0% -0.8%

29.2% of Connor Joe's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.3% lower than the league average. Trevor Rogers induces Standard Grounders at a 33.8% rate, which is 0.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt 0.0% -0.2% 34%

Standard Grounder -5.3% -0.6% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.6% +2.9% 14%

Low Screamer +2.5% -0.3% 9%

Rising Liner +0.4% -0.6% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.1% +0.9% 3%

Likely Homer +0.1% -0.4% 1%

No Doubter -0.7% -0.7% 20%

Routine Flyout +1.5% 0.0% 3%

Pop up +4.2% -0.9%

22.1% of Connor Joe's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 2.2% lower than the league average. 28.6% of batted balls allowed by Trevor Rogers are hit at above 100 mph, which is 4.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +9.0% -1.5% 21%

75 to 86 mph -4.0% -4.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph -4.0% +1.4% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.2% -0.2% 24%

Above 100 mph -2.2% +4.3%

10.8% of Connor Joe's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.6% lower than the league average. 10.0% of batted balls allowed by Connor Joe are hit at this angle, which is 1.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.3% -0.1% 12%

-10 to 0° -3.0% +1.2% 8%

1 to 6° -1.8% +0.7% 18%

7 to 18° +1.8% -0.4% 15%

19 to 28° +1.0% +3.0% 11%

29 to 38° -0.6% -1.4% 7%

39 to 50° +0.5% -1.5% 8%

Above 50° +4.4% -1.5%

Connor Joe has 6 plate appearances against Trevor Rogers in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 5 with a double and a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	6	5	2	0	1	1	1	1	0.400
Expected From Contact →			1.37	0.01	1.17	0.19			0.274

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-03-31	Walk
2024-03-31	Single		21%	7%	72%
2024-03-31	Groundout			7%	93%
2022-06-01	Groundout			3%	97%
2022-06-01	Double	1%	96%	2%	1%
2022-06-01	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

On the Way to the Plate

Contact and Outcomes

History