Matchup Machine

Connor Joe

matchup for Corbin Burnes

109th out of 436 (Best 26%)

Corbin Burnes

matchup for Connor Joe

484th out of 568 (Worst 15%)

Moderate advantage for Burnes

Connor Joe has a 28.7% chance of reaching base vs Corbin Burnes, which is 3.6% lower than Joe's typical expectations, and 1.2% lower than batters facing Burnes.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	28.7%	19.0%	1.5%	4.0%	13.5%	9.6%	24.8%
Joe	-3.6	-0.7	-0.3	-0.9	+0.5	-2.9	+0.0
Burnes	-1.2	-3.0	-0.8	-0.4	-1.8	+1.7	+1.7

Connor Joe is slightly better vs right-handed pitching. Corbin Burnes is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Joe has a D grade vs this particular release point.

Corbin Burnes throws a Cutter 52% of the time. Connor Joe has a B grade against right-handed Cutters

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Cutter (R)

52%

Curve (R)

19%

Slider (R)

10%

Changeup (R)

10%

Sinker (R)

24% of Corbin Burnes's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 4% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 24%

+4%

Weak Challenge 10%

+2%

Chaser 8%

+2%

Fringe Miss 14%

+1%

Edge Painter 17%

-1%

Mid Challenge 10%

-1%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Non-Competitive 9%

-3%

Meatball 2%

-4%

47% of Corbin Burnes's pitches are classified as Low Ride, which is 23% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has a B- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Low Ride 47%

+23%

Fast Velo 36%

+21%

Small Break 31%

+20%

13.2% of Connor Joe's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.3% lower than the league average. Corbin Burnes strikes out 17.5% of the batters he faces, which is 3.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -2.3% +3.1% 3%

Walk +3.0% -1.5% 40%

In Play -0.7% -1.6% 39%

On Base +0.2% -3.2% 31%

Hit -2.8% -1.7% 14%

Single -1.1% -0.7% 13%

2B / 3B -0.7% -0.2% 3%

Home Run -1.0% -0.8%

29.2% of Connor Joe's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.3% lower than the league average. Corbin Burnes induces Standard Grounders at a 40.9% rate, which is 6.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt 0.0% 0.0% 34%

Standard Grounder -5.3% +6.5% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.6% +0.5% 14%

Low Screamer +2.5% -0.7% 9%

Rising Liner +0.4% -1.2% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.1% -1.3% 3%

Likely Homer +0.1% 0.0% 1%

No Doubter -0.7% -0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout +1.5% -3.3% 3%

Pop up +4.2% -0.1%

22.1% of Connor Joe's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 2.2% lower than the league average. 22.2% of batted balls allowed by Corbin Burnes are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +9.0% +2.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph -4.0% +0.8% 18%

87 to 93 mph -4.0% +2.6% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.2% -3.9% 24%

Above 100 mph -2.2% -2.1%

10.8% of Connor Joe's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.6% lower than the league average. 9.6% of batted balls allowed by Connor Joe are hit at this angle, which is 1.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.3% +3.1% 12%

-10 to 0° -3.0% +0.6% 8%

1 to 6° -1.8% +2.6% 18%

7 to 18° +1.8% -1.1% 15%

19 to 28° +1.0% -4.1% 11%

29 to 38° -0.6% -1.8% 7%

39 to 50° +0.5% -1.0% 8%

Above 50° +4.4% +1.8%

Connor Joe has 6 plate appearances against Corbin Burnes in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 6 with a double and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	6	6	1	0	1	0	1	0	0.167
Expected From Contact →			1.49	0.00	0.55	0.94			0.249

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-04	Flyout				99%
2023-09-04	Strikeout
2023-09-04	Lineout		1%	9%	90%
2022-07-22	Double		15%	77%	8%
2022-07-22	Flyout		3%		97%
2022-07-22	Groundout		35%	8%	57%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

On the Way to the Plate

Contact and Outcomes

History