Matchup Machine

Connor Joe

matchup for MacKenzie Gore

299th out of 436 (Worst 32%)

MacKenzie Gore

matchup for Connor Joe

292nd out of 568 (Worst 49%)

Leans in favor of Joe

Connor Joe has a 33.6% chance of reaching base vs MacKenzie Gore, which is 1.4% higher than Joe's typical expectations, and 2.4% higher than batters facing Gore.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	33.6%	19.1%	1.6%	4.7%	12.8%	14.5%	26.1%
Joe	+1.4	-0.6	-0.3	-0.1	-0.2	+2.0	+1.3
Gore	+2.4	-2.0	-0.4	-0.1	-1.5	+4.4	-1.4

Connor Joe is about the same vs left-handed pitching as he is against right. MacKenzie Gore is left handed with a moderate release toward the first base side. Joe has a C+ grade vs this particular release point.

MacKenzie Gore throws a 4-seam fastball 58% of the time. Connor Joe has a C grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

58%

Curve (L)

19%

Slider (L)

17%

Changeup (L)

13% of MacKenzie Gore's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has a D+ grade against this type of pitch.

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 13%

+2%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Likely Ball 20%

+0%

Non-Competitive 13%

+0%

Fringe Miss 12%

Chaser 5%

-1%

Weak Challenge 8%

-1%

Meatball 3%

-2%

32% of MacKenzie Gore's pitches are classified as High Ride, which is 22% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has a D grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

High Ride 32%

+22%

Fast Velo 29%

+20%

Small Break 27%

+19%

13.2% of Connor Joe's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.3% lower than the league average. MacKenzie Gore strikes out 16.6% of the batters he faces, which is 2.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -2.3% +2.3% 3%

Walk +3.0% +1.4% 40%

In Play -0.7% -3.6% 39%

On Base +0.2% +0.2% 31%

Hit -2.8% -1.2% 14%

Single -1.1% -0.2% 13%

2B / 3B -0.7% +0.2% 3%

Home Run -1.0% -1.1%

29.2% of Connor Joe's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.3% lower than the league average. MacKenzie Gore induces Standard Grounders at a 33.9% rate, which is 0.5% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt 0.0% -0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder -5.3% -0.5% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.6% +0.9% 14%

Low Screamer +2.5% -2.5% 9%

Rising Liner +0.4% +1.7% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.1% +0.1% 3%

Likely Homer +0.1% -0.6% 1%

No Doubter -0.7% -0.1% 20%

Routine Flyout +1.5% +1.5% 3%

Pop up +4.2% -0.5%

22.1% of Connor Joe's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 2.2% lower than the league average. 22.5% of batted balls allowed by MacKenzie Gore are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +9.0% +0.1% 21%

75 to 86 mph -4.0% -0.9% 18%

87 to 93 mph -4.0% +1.2% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.2% +1.3% 24%

Above 100 mph -2.2% -1.8%

10.8% of Connor Joe's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.6% lower than the league average. 12.6% of batted balls allowed by Connor Joe are hit at this angle, which is 1.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.3% -0.1% 12%

-10 to 0° -3.0% +0.0% 8%

1 to 6° -1.8% -0.2% 18%

7 to 18° +1.8% +0.4% 15%

19 to 28° +1.0% +1.8% 11%

29 to 38° -0.6% +1.2% 7%

39 to 50° +0.5% -1.2% 8%

Above 50° +4.4% -1.9%

Connor Joe has 8 plate appearances against MacKenzie Gore in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 7 with a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	8	7	1	0	0	1	1	1	0.143
Expected From Contact →			0.95	0.00	0.11	0.84			0.136

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-04-01	Pop Out				100%
2024-04-01	Hit By Pitch
2024-04-01	Lineout		10%	2%	88%
2022-06-17	Single			79%	20%
2022-06-17	Strikeout
2022-06-17	Groundout			2%	97%
2022-06-11	Walk
2022-06-11	Flyout				100%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

On the Way to the Plate

Contact and Outcomes

History