Matchup Machine

Connor Joe

matchup for Matt Manning

161st out of 436 (Best 38%)

Matt Manning

matchup for Connor Joe

136th out of 568 (Best 25%)

Moderate advantage for Joe

Connor Joe has a 34.8% chance of reaching base vs Matt Manning, which is 2.6% higher than Joe's typical expectations, and 0.8% higher than batters facing Manning.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	34.8%	20.8%	1.7%	5.2%	13.9%	14.0%	20.0%
Joe	+2.6	+1.1	-0.1	+0.4	+0.9	+1.5	-4.8
Manning	+0.8	-3.6	-1.3	-0.1	-2.2	+4.4	-0.3

Connor Joe is slightly better vs right-handed pitching. Matt Manning is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Joe has a C+ grade vs this particular release point.

Matt Manning throws a 4-seam fastball 46% of the time. Connor Joe has a D grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

46%

Slider (R)

24%

Curve (R)

13%

Sinker (R)

Changeup (R)

14% of Matt Manning's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has a D+ grade against this type of pitch.

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 14%

+2%

Meatball 9%

+2%

Weak Challenge 9%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-1%

Likely Ball 17%

-2%

Chaser 4%

-2%

27% of Matt Manning's pitches are classified as Small Break Toward Third Base, which is 18% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has a C- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Small Break 27%

+18%

Medium Ride 27%

+13%

Medium Fast Velo 27%

+12%

13.2% of Connor Joe's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.3% lower than the league average. Matt Manning strikes out 11.0% of the batters he faces, which is 5.5% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -2.3% -5.5% 3%

Walk +3.0% -0.1% 40%

In Play -0.7% +5.6% 39%

On Base +0.2% +1.8% 31%

Hit -2.8% +1.9% 14%

Single -1.1% +0.3% 13%

2B / 3B -0.7% +0.7% 3%

Home Run -1.0% +0.9%

29.2% of Connor Joe's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.3% lower than the league average. Matt Manning induces Standard Grounders at a 26.5% rate, which is 8.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt 0.0% -0.7% 34%

Standard Grounder -5.3% -8.0% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.6% +2.3% 14%

Low Screamer +2.5% +3.7% 9%

Rising Liner +0.4% -0.8% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.1% -0.2% 3%

Likely Homer +0.1% +0.4% 1%

No Doubter -0.7% -0.7% 20%

Routine Flyout +1.5% +3.1% 3%

Pop up +4.2% +0.8%

22.1% of Connor Joe's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 2.2% lower than the league average. 25.7% of batted balls allowed by Matt Manning are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +9.0% -6.5% 21%

75 to 86 mph -4.0% +2.3% 18%

87 to 93 mph -4.0% +3.1% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.2% -0.4% 24%

Above 100 mph -2.2% +1.5%

10.8% of Connor Joe's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.6% lower than the league average. 14.9% of batted balls allowed by Connor Joe are hit at this angle, which is 3.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.3% -6.9% 12%

-10 to 0° -3.0% +0.9% 8%

1 to 6° -1.8% +0.4% 18%

7 to 18° +1.8% -1.9% 15%

19 to 28° +1.0% +1.0% 11%

29 to 38° -0.6% +3.5% 7%

39 to 50° +0.5% +0.4% 8%

Above 50° +4.4% +2.6%

Connor Joe has 3 plate appearances against Matt Manning in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 3 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	0.333
Expected From Contact →			0.81	0.03	0.05	0.73			0.270

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-08-01	Flyout	3%	5%		92%
2023-08-01	Strikeout
2023-08-01	Single			72%	27%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

On the Way to the Plate

Contact and Outcomes

History