Matchup Machine

Connor Joe

matchup for Nick Lodolo

391st out of 436 (Worst 11%)

Nick Lodolo

matchup for Connor Joe

61st out of 568 (Best 12%)

Strong advantage for Joe

Connor Joe has a 37.7% chance of reaching base vs Nick Lodolo, which is 5.5% higher than Joe's typical expectations, and 5.0% higher than batters facing Lodolo.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	37.7%	19.9%	2.2%	4.6%	13.1%	17.8%	22.9%
Joe	+5.5	+0.1	+0.3	-0.3	+0.1	+5.3	-1.9
Lodolo	+5.0	-1.3	-0.3	+0.2	-1.1	+6.2	-2.3

Connor Joe is about the same vs left-handed pitching as he is against right. Nick Lodolo is left handed with an extreme release toward the first base side. Joe has a D grade vs this particular release point.

Nick Lodolo throws a 4-seam fastball 29% of the time. Connor Joe has a C grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

29%

Curve (L)

29%

Sinker (L)

27%

Changeup (L)

13%

7% of Nick Lodolo's pitches are classified as Chasers, which is 1% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Chaser 7%

+1%

Mid Challenge 13%

+1%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Weak Challenge 9%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

Likely Ball 19%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Meatball 3%

-3%

67% of Nick Lodolo's pitches are classified as Extreme Break Toward Third Base, which is 52% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has a B- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Break 67%

+52%

Fast Velo 31%

+22%

Medium Drop 24%

+12%

13.2% of Connor Joe's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.3% lower than the league average. Nick Lodolo strikes out 18.2% of the batters he faces, which is 4.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -2.3% +4.5% 3%

Walk +3.0% -1.0% 40%

In Play -0.7% -3.5% 39%

On Base +0.2% -2.4% 31%

Hit -2.8% -1.4% 14%

Single -1.1% -0.7% 13%

2B / 3B -0.7% -0.3% 3%

Home Run -1.0% -0.4%

29.2% of Connor Joe's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.3% lower than the league average. Nick Lodolo induces Standard Grounders at a 35.8% rate, which is 1.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt 0.0% +0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder -5.3% +1.3% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.6% -0.2% 14%

Low Screamer +2.5% -2.1% 9%

Rising Liner +0.4% +1.6% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.1% -1.5% 3%

Likely Homer +0.1% +1.1% 1%

No Doubter -0.7% -0.8% 20%

Routine Flyout +1.5% -1.5% 3%

Pop up +4.2% +2.0%

22.1% of Connor Joe's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 2.2% lower than the league average. 26.6% of batted balls allowed by Nick Lodolo are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +9.0% -2.4% 21%

75 to 86 mph -4.0% +0.9% 18%

87 to 93 mph -4.0% +3.0% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.2% -3.7% 24%

Above 100 mph -2.2% +2.3%

10.8% of Connor Joe's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.6% lower than the league average. 9.5% of batted balls allowed by Connor Joe are hit at this angle, which is 1.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.3% -0.9% 12%

-10 to 0° -3.0% +2.6% 8%

1 to 6° -1.8% +1.7% 18%

7 to 18° +1.8% +1.3% 15%

19 to 28° +1.0% -2.0% 11%

29 to 38° -0.6% -1.9% 7%

39 to 50° +0.5% +0.2% 8%

Above 50° +4.4% -1.0%

Connor Joe has 8 plate appearances against Nick Lodolo in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 6 with 2 walks

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	8	6	1	0	0	1	2	2	0.167
Expected From Contact →			1.32	0.00	0.01	1.31			0.220

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-08-22	Walk
2024-08-22	Groundout			58%	41%
2024-06-18	Flyout			30%	69%
2024-06-18	Pop Out				100%
2024-06-18	Strikeout
2023-04-01	Walk
2023-04-01	Strikeout
2023-04-01	Single			42%	58%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

On the Way to the Plate

Contact and Outcomes

History