Matchup Machine

Connor Joe

matchup for Braxton Garrett

174th out of 436 (Best 41%)

Braxton Garrett

matchup for Connor Joe

305th out of 568 (Worst 46%)

Leans in favor of Joe

Connor Joe has a 31.2% chance of reaching base vs Braxton Garrett, which is 1.0% lower than Joe's typical expectations, and 0.4% higher than batters facing Garrett.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	31.2%	22.6%	2.3%	5.3%	15.0%	8.6%	25.6%
Joe	-1.0	+2.9	+0.4	+0.4	+2.0	-3.9	+0.8
Garrett	-0.4	-2.3	-0.4	-0.5	-1.5	+1.9	+1.5

Connor Joe is about the same vs left-handed pitching as he is against right. Braxton Garrett is left handed with a horizontal release toward the first base side. Joe has a C- grade vs this particular release point.

Braxton Garrett throws a Slider 27% of the time. Connor Joe has a D- grade against left-handed Sliders

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Slider (L)

27%

Sinker (L)

27%

4-Seam (L)

17%

Curve (L)

10%

Changeup (L)

10%

Cutter (L)

12% of Braxton Garrett's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 12%

+3%

Likely Ball 21%

+1%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Meatball 6%

Edge Painter 17%

Fringe Miss 12%

Mid Challenge 10%

-1%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Non-Competitive 10%

-2%

28% of Braxton Garrett's pitches are classified as Medium Velocity, which is 13% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Velo 28%

+13%

Extreme Break 28%

+12%

Medium Drop 21%

+9%

13.2% of Connor Joe's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.3% lower than the league average. Braxton Garrett strikes out 15.4% of the batters he faces, which is 1.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -2.3% +1.5% 3%

Walk +3.0% -3.8% 40%

In Play -0.7% +2.3% 39%

On Base +0.2% -0.2% 31%

Hit -2.8% +3.6% 14%

Single -1.1% +1.7% 13%

2B / 3B -0.7% +2.1% 3%

Home Run -1.0% -0.1%

29.2% of Connor Joe's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.3% lower than the league average. Braxton Garrett induces Standard Grounders at a 37.7% rate, which is 3.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt 0.0% -0.2% 34%

Standard Grounder -5.3% +3.3% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.6% +4.7% 14%

Low Screamer +2.5% -3.7% 9%

Rising Liner +0.4% +0.0% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.1% 0.0% 3%

Likely Homer +0.1% +0.7% 1%

No Doubter -0.7% +0.0% 20%

Routine Flyout +1.5% -5.1% 3%

Pop up +4.2% +0.4%

22.1% of Connor Joe's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 2.2% lower than the league average. 32.8% of batted balls allowed by Braxton Garrett are hit at above 100 mph, which is 8.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +9.0% -2.8% 21%

75 to 86 mph -4.0% -4.3% 18%

87 to 93 mph -4.0% -3.6% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.2% +2.2% 24%

Above 100 mph -2.2% +8.5%

10.8% of Connor Joe's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.6% lower than the league average. 10.8% of batted balls allowed by Connor Joe are hit at this angle, which is 0.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.3% +3.0% 12%

-10 to 0° -3.0% +3.5% 8%

1 to 6° -1.8% +2.4% 18%

7 to 18° +1.8% -3.1% 15%

19 to 28° +1.0% -1.1% 11%

29 to 38° -0.6% -0.6% 7%

39 to 50° +0.5% -2.1% 8%

Above 50° +4.4% -2.0%

Connor Joe has 6 plate appearances against Braxton Garrett in the last 3 years. He is 3 for 6 with 3 strikeouts.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	6	6	3	0	0	3	3	0	0.500
Expected From Contact →			1.81	0.00	0.03	1.78			0.301

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-06-22	Strikeout
2023-06-22	Strikeout
2023-06-22	Single			93%	7%
2022-06-23	Strikeout
2022-06-23	Single		3%	42%	55%
2022-06-23	Single			43%	57%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

On the Way to the Plate

Contact and Outcomes

History