Matchup Machine

Connor Joe

matchup for Ryan Thompson

276th out of 436 (Worst 37%)

Ryan Thompson

matchup for Connor Joe

235th out of 568 (Best 42%)

Moderate advantage for Joe

Connor Joe has a 32.5% chance of reaching base vs Ryan Thompson, which is 0.3% higher than Joe's typical expectations, and 1.6% higher than batters facing Thompson.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	32.5%	23.6%	1.9%	4.8%	17.0%	8.9%	19.6%
Joe	+0.3	+3.9	0.0	-0.1	+4.0	-3.6	-5.2
Thompson	+1.6	-0.6	-0.5	+0.3	-0.3	+2.2	+0.3

Connor Joe is slightly better vs right-handed pitching. Ryan Thompson is right handed with an extreme release toward the third base side. Joe has a D grade vs this particular release point.

Ryan Thompson throws a Sinker 55% of the time. Connor Joe has an A- grade against right-handed Sinkers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Sinker (R)

55%

Slider (R)

33%

4-Seam (R)

11%

10% of Ryan Thompson's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 10%

+2%

Edge Painter 19%

+2%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

Likely Ball 18%

-1%

Non-Competitive 10%

-3%

Meatball 3%

-3%

37% of Ryan Thompson's pitches are classified as Large Drop, which is 32% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Large Drop 37%

+32%

Medium Velo 41%

+30%

Extreme Break 43%

+28%

Fastball (R) 66%

+13%

13.2% of Connor Joe's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.3% lower than the league average. Ryan Thompson strikes out 13.5% of the batters he faces, which is 3.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -2.3% -3.0% 3%

Walk +3.0% -2.2% 40%

In Play -0.7% +5.2% 39%

On Base +0.2% +0.1% 31%

Hit -2.8% +2.3% 14%

Single -1.1% +1.0% 13%

2B / 3B -0.7% +1.7% 3%

Home Run -1.0% -0.3%

29.2% of Connor Joe's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.3% lower than the league average. Ryan Thompson induces Standard Grounders at a 48.8% rate, which is 14.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt 0.0% +1.5% 34%

Standard Grounder -5.3% +14.3% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.6% +2.5% 14%

Low Screamer +2.5% -6.6% 9%

Rising Liner +0.4% -0.1% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.1% -1.9% 3%

Likely Homer +0.1% -0.3% 1%

No Doubter -0.7% -0.7% 20%

Routine Flyout +1.5% -9.9% 3%

Pop up +4.2% +1.2%

22.1% of Connor Joe's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 2.2% lower than the league average. 28.8% of batted balls allowed by Ryan Thompson are hit at above 100 mph, which is 4.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +9.0% +5.8% 21%

75 to 86 mph -4.0% -2.7% 18%

87 to 93 mph -4.0% -5.3% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.2% -2.3% 24%

Above 100 mph -2.2% +4.5%

10.8% of Connor Joe's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.6% lower than the league average. 6.8% of batted balls allowed by Connor Joe are hit at this angle, which is 4.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.3% +15.6% 12%

-10 to 0° -3.0% +3.8% 8%

1 to 6° -1.8% -0.3% 18%

7 to 18° +1.8% -3.3% 15%

19 to 28° +1.0% -5.7% 11%

29 to 38° -0.6% -4.6% 7%

39 to 50° +0.5% -3.5% 8%

Above 50° +4.4% -1.9%

Connor Joe has 3 plate appearances against Ryan Thompson in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 3 with a double and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.333
Expected From Contact →			0.73	0.00	0.41	0.32			0.244

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-07-26	Groundout		2%	13%	85%
2023-05-04	Groundout			7%	93%
2023-05-02	Double		39%	13%	49%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

On the Way to the Plate

Contact and Outcomes

History