Matchup Machine

Connor Joe

matchup for Mark Leiter Jr.

164th out of 436 (Best 38%)

Mark Leiter Jr.

matchup for Connor Joe

503rd out of 568 (Worst 12%)

Moderate advantage for Leiter Jr.

Connor Joe has a 30.5% chance of reaching base vs Mark Leiter Jr., which is 1.7% lower than Joe's typical expectations, and 0.1% higher than batters facing Leiter Jr..

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	30.5%	16.7%	1.9%	4.0%	10.8%	13.9%	36.4%
Joe	-1.7	-3.1	0.0	-0.8	-2.2	+1.4	+11.6
Leiter Jr.	+0.1	-2.8	-0.9	0.0	-1.8	+2.9	+1.9

Connor Joe is slightly better vs right-handed pitching. Mark Leiter Jr. is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Joe has a C grade vs this particular release point.

Mark Leiter Jr. throws a 4-seam fastball 19% of the time. Connor Joe has a D grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

19%

Sinker (R)

16%

Changeup (R)

14%

Splitter (R)

14%

Curve (R)

13%

Cutter (R)

12%

15% of Mark Leiter Jr.'s pitches are classified as Non-Competitive, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Non-Competitive 15%

+2%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Meatball 7%

+1%

Chaser 6%

+0%

Weak Challenge 8%

Fringe Miss 12%

-1%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Edge Painter 16%

-1%

Mid Challenge 10%

-1%

32% of Mark Leiter Jr.'s pitches are classified as Medium Velocity, which is 22% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Velo 32%

+22%

Offspeed (R) 29%

+17%

Medium Break 28%

+9%

13.2% of Connor Joe's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.3% lower than the league average. Mark Leiter Jr. strikes out 21.8% of the batters he faces, which is 7.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -2.3% +7.4% 3%

Walk +3.0% +0.5% 40%

In Play -0.7% -7.9% 39%

On Base +0.2% -2.8% 31%

Hit -2.8% -3.3% 14%

Single -1.1% -1.5% 13%

2B / 3B -0.7% -1.4% 3%

Home Run -1.0% -0.4%

29.2% of Connor Joe's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.3% lower than the league average. Mark Leiter Jr. induces Standard Grounders at a 36.7% rate, which is 2.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt 0.0% +0.6% 34%

Standard Grounder -5.3% +2.3% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.6% +2.5% 14%

Low Screamer +2.5% -1.4% 9%

Rising Liner +0.4% +2.3% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.1% -0.5% 3%

Likely Homer +0.1% +0.8% 1%

No Doubter -0.7% -0.5% 20%

Routine Flyout +1.5% -6.2% 3%

Pop up +4.2% +0.1%

22.1% of Connor Joe's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 2.2% lower than the league average. 28.4% of batted balls allowed by Mark Leiter Jr. are hit at above 100 mph, which is 4.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +9.0% +2.0% 21%

75 to 86 mph -4.0% +2.2% 18%

87 to 93 mph -4.0% -2.5% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.2% -5.8% 24%

Above 100 mph -2.2% +4.1%

10.8% of Connor Joe's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.6% lower than the league average. 10.2% of batted balls allowed by Connor Joe are hit at this angle, which is 1.2% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.3% +1.6% 12%

-10 to 0° -3.0% +2.7% 8%

1 to 6° -1.8% +1.1% 18%

7 to 18° +1.8% +1.9% 15%

19 to 28° +1.0% -2.5% 11%

29 to 38° -0.6% -1.2% 7%

39 to 50° +0.5% -1.2% 8%

Above 50° +4.4% -2.4%

Connor Joe has 8 plate appearances against Mark Leiter Jr. in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 7 with a home run, a double and a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	8	7	2	1	1	0	2	1	0.286
Expected From Contact →			2.10	1.08	0.97	0.05			0.300

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-05-12	Pop Out				100%
2023-09-20	Home Run	92%	5%		2%
2023-08-26	Strikeout
2023-06-13	Lineout	12%	32%	2%	53%
2022-09-18	Pop Out				100%
2022-04-16	Walk
2022-04-16	Triple	3%	59%	2%	35%
2022-04-16	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

On the Way to the Plate

Contact and Outcomes

History