Matchup Machine

Connor Joe

matchup for Griffin Jax

290th out of 436 (Worst 34%)

Griffin Jax

matchup for Connor Joe

566th out of 568 (Worst 1%)

Extreme advantage for Jax

Connor Joe has a 24.0% chance of reaching base vs Griffin Jax, which is 8.2% lower than Joe's typical expectations, and 1.6% higher than batters facing Jax.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	24.0%	15.9%	1.8%	3.8%	10.2%	8.2%	37.4%
Joe	-8.2	-3.9	-0.1	-1.0	-2.7	-4.3	+12.6
Jax	+1.6	-0.8	-0.3	+0.3	-0.8	+2.3	+0.2

Connor Joe is slightly better vs right-handed pitching. Griffin Jax is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Joe has a D grade vs this particular release point.

Griffin Jax throws a Slider 42% of the time. Connor Joe has a D grade against right-handed Sliders

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Slider (R)

42%

4-Seam (R)

35%

Changeup (R)

13%

8% of Griffin Jax's pitches are classified as Chasers, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Chaser 8%

+2%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Likely Ball 19%

+0%

Meatball 6%

Weak Challenge 7%

-1%

Non-Competitive 9%

-4%

24% of Griffin Jax's pitches are classified as Large Break Toward Third Base, which is 19% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has a D+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Large Break 24%

+19%

Breaking (R) 47%

+16%

Large Drop 16%

+10%

13.2% of Connor Joe's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.3% lower than the league average. Griffin Jax strikes out 22.3% of the batters he faces, which is 11.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -2.3% +11.5% 3%

Walk +3.0% -2.9% 40%

In Play -0.7% -8.6% 39%

On Base +0.2% -7.2% 31%

Hit -2.8% -4.4% 14%

Single -1.1% -2.6% 13%

2B / 3B -0.7% -2.2% 3%

Home Run -1.0% +0.4%

29.2% of Connor Joe's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.3% lower than the league average. Griffin Jax induces Standard Grounders at a 42.0% rate, which is 7.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt 0.0% +0.7% 34%

Standard Grounder -5.3% +7.6% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.6% +0.9% 14%

Low Screamer +2.5% -4.9% 9%

Rising Liner +0.4% -3.0% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.1% +0.8% 3%

Likely Homer +0.1% -1.9% 1%

No Doubter -0.7% +0.4% 20%

Routine Flyout +1.5% -0.5% 3%

Pop up +4.2% 0.0%

22.1% of Connor Joe's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 2.2% lower than the league average. 24.9% of batted balls allowed by Griffin Jax are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +9.0% +3.2% 21%

75 to 86 mph -4.0% +0.4% 18%

87 to 93 mph -4.0% -1.6% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.2% -2.6% 24%

Above 100 mph -2.2% +0.6%

10.8% of Connor Joe's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.6% lower than the league average. 12.4% of batted balls allowed by Connor Joe are hit at this angle, which is 1.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.3% +7.9% 12%

-10 to 0° -3.0% +3.0% 8%

1 to 6° -1.8% -0.9% 18%

7 to 18° +1.8% -4.3% 15%

19 to 28° +1.0% -5.3% 11%

29 to 38° -0.6% +1.0% 7%

39 to 50° +0.5% -0.6% 8%

Above 50° +4.4% -0.9%

Connor Joe has 2 plate appearances against Griffin Jax in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 2 with a home run and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	2	2	1	1	0	0	1	0	0.500
Expected From Contact →			0.96	0.86	0.10	0.01			0.479

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-06-09	Strikeout
2024-06-07	Home Run	86%	10%		4%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

On the Way to the Plate

Contact and Outcomes

History