Matchup Machine

Connor Joe

matchup for Ryan Yarbrough

268th out of 436 (Worst 39%)

Ryan Yarbrough

matchup for Connor Joe

135th out of 568 (Best 25%)

Moderate advantage for Joe

Connor Joe has a 33.8% chance of reaching base vs Ryan Yarbrough, which is 1.6% higher than Joe's typical expectations, and 1.2% higher than batters facing Yarbrough.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	33.8%	22.7%	2.4%	5.2%	15.1%	11.1%	20.8%
Joe	+1.6	+3.0	+0.5	+0.4	+2.1	-1.4	-4.0
Yarbrough	+1.2	-1.6	-0.5	+0.4	-1.5	+2.8	-0.6

Connor Joe is about the same vs left-handed pitching as he is against right. Ryan Yarbrough is left handed with an extreme release toward the first base side. Joe has a D grade vs this particular release point.

Ryan Yarbrough throws a Cutter 30% of the time. Connor Joe hasn't faced this pitch from left handers very often.

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Cutter (L)

30%

Changeup (L)

25%

Sinker (L)

22%

Curve (L)

20%

9% of Ryan Yarbrough's pitches are classified as Chasers, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Chaser 9%

+3%

Meatball 7%

+2%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Likely Ball 20%

+0%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Mid Challenge 11%

Strong Challenge 5%

-1%

Weak Challenge 8%

-1%

Non-Competitive 9%

-4%

39% of Ryan Yarbrough's pitches are classified as Just Gravity, which is 26% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has a C+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Just Gravity 39%

+26%

Extreme Break 35%

+20%

Slow Lob 21%

+17%

Offspeed (L) 25%

+12%

13.2% of Connor Joe's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.3% lower than the league average. Ryan Yarbrough strikes out 13.1% of the batters he faces, which is 3.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -2.3% -3.1% 3%

Walk +3.0% -3.1% 40%

In Play -0.7% +6.2% 39%

On Base +0.2% +2.0% 31%

Hit -2.8% +5.2% 14%

Single -1.1% +3.0% 13%

2B / 3B -0.7% +2.8% 3%

Home Run -1.0% -0.6%

29.2% of Connor Joe's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.3% lower than the league average. Ryan Yarbrough induces Standard Grounders at a 36.3% rate, which is 1.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt 0.0% +0.3% 34%

Standard Grounder -5.3% +1.9% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.6% -2.8% 14%

Low Screamer +2.5% +3.9% 9%

Rising Liner +0.4% -1.7% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.1% +0.3% 3%

Likely Homer +0.1% -0.4% 1%

No Doubter -0.7% +0.1% 20%

Routine Flyout +1.5% -4.0% 3%

Pop up +4.2% +2.4%

22.1% of Connor Joe's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 2.2% lower than the league average. 18.0% of batted balls allowed by Ryan Yarbrough are hit at above 100 mph, which is 6.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +9.0% +9.7% 21%

75 to 86 mph -4.0% +1.3% 18%

87 to 93 mph -4.0% -1.1% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.2% -3.6% 24%

Above 100 mph -2.2% -6.3%

10.8% of Connor Joe's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.6% lower than the league average. 12.0% of batted balls allowed by Connor Joe are hit at this angle, which is 0.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.3% -1.5% 12%

-10 to 0° -3.0% +1.0% 8%

1 to 6° -1.8% -1.1% 18%

7 to 18° +1.8% 0.0% 15%

19 to 28° +1.0% -0.1% 11%

29 to 38° -0.6% +0.5% 7%

39 to 50° +0.5% -1.1% 8%

Above 50° +4.4% +2.3%

Connor Joe has 1 plate appearance against Ryan Yarbrough in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 0 with a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00			0.000

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-06-05	Walk

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

On the Way to the Plate

Contact and Outcomes

History