Matchup Machine

Connor Joe

matchup for Reynaldo Lopez

345th out of 436 (Worst 21%)

Reynaldo Lopez

matchup for Connor Joe

369th out of 568 (Worst 35%)

Leans in favor of Lopez

Connor Joe has a 32.0% chance of reaching base vs Reynaldo Lopez, which is 0.2% higher than Joe's typical expectations, and 3.7% higher than batters facing Lopez.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	32.0%	18.3%	1.7%	4.6%	12.0%	13.6%	27.3%
Joe	-0.2	-1.4	-0.2	-0.3	-1.0	+1.2	+2.5
Lopez	+3.7	-2.1	-0.8	+0.1	-1.5	+5.8	-3.8

Connor Joe is slightly better vs right-handed pitching. Reynaldo Lopez is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Joe has a C+ grade vs this particular release point.

Reynaldo Lopez throws a 4-seam fastball 58% of the time. Connor Joe has a D grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

58%

Slider (R)

25%

Changeup (R)

10%

Curve (R)

13% of Reynaldo Lopez's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has a D+ grade against this type of pitch.

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 13%

+2%

Weak Challenge 9%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Strong Challenge 5%

Edge Painter 17%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Chaser 5%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

39% of Reynaldo Lopez's pitches are classified as Medium Break Toward Third Base, which is 20% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has a D+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Break 39%

+20%

Medium Ride 29%

+15%

Very Fast Velo 22%

+14%

13.2% of Connor Joe's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.3% lower than the league average. Reynaldo Lopez strikes out 16.3% of the batters he faces, which is 1.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -2.3% +1.8% 3%

Walk +3.0% 0.0% 40%

In Play -0.7% -1.8% 39%

On Base +0.2% -1.4% 31%

Hit -2.8% -1.4% 14%

Single -1.1% -0.9% 13%

2B / 3B -0.7% -0.5% 3%

Home Run -1.0% +0.0%

29.2% of Connor Joe's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.3% lower than the league average. Reynaldo Lopez induces Standard Grounders at a 31.5% rate, which is 2.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt 0.0% -0.3% 34%

Standard Grounder -5.3% -2.9% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.6% -0.6% 14%

Low Screamer +2.5% +1.4% 9%

Rising Liner +0.4% +1.1% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.1% +1.0% 3%

Likely Homer +0.1% +0.0% 1%

No Doubter -0.7% -0.4% 20%

Routine Flyout +1.5% +0.5% 3%

Pop up +4.2% +0.2%

22.1% of Connor Joe's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 2.2% lower than the league average. 23.8% of batted balls allowed by Reynaldo Lopez are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +9.0% -0.5% 21%

75 to 86 mph -4.0% -3.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph -4.0% +1.5% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.2% +2.5% 24%

Above 100 mph -2.2% -0.4%

10.8% of Connor Joe's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.6% lower than the league average. 13.4% of batted balls allowed by Connor Joe are hit at this angle, which is 2.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.3% -2.8% 12%

-10 to 0° -3.0% +0.5% 8%

1 to 6° -1.8% -0.2% 18%

7 to 18° +1.8% -0.1% 15%

19 to 28° +1.0% +1.8% 11%

29 to 38° -0.6% +2.0% 7%

39 to 50° +0.5% -0.4% 8%

Above 50° +4.4% -0.8%

Connor Joe has 2 plate appearances against Reynaldo Lopez in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 2.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	2	2	1	0	0	1	0	0	0.500
Expected From Contact →			0.75	0.00	0.04	0.71			0.374

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-05-25	Groundout			20%	79%
2024-05-25	Single		4%	50%	46%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

On the Way to the Plate

Contact and Outcomes

History