Matchup Machine

Connor Joe

matchup for A.J. Minter

220th out of 436 (Best 51%)

A.J. Minter

matchup for Connor Joe

434th out of 568 (Worst 24%)

Moderate advantage for Minter

Connor Joe has a 29.8% chance of reaching base vs A.J. Minter, which is 2.4% lower than Joe's typical expectations, and 1.3% higher than batters facing Minter.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	29.8%	18.3%	2.0%	4.3%	11.9%	11.6%	27.4%
Joe	-2.4	-1.4	+0.1	-0.5	-1.0	-0.9	+2.6
Minter	+1.3	-2.2	-0.7	-0.3	-1.2	+3.5	-0.2

Connor Joe is about the same vs left-handed pitching as he is against right. A.J. Minter is left handed with a horizontal release toward the first base side. Joe has a C- grade vs this particular release point.

A.J. Minter throws a 4-seam fastball 46% of the time. Connor Joe has a C grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

46%

Cutter (L)

41%

Changeup (L)

13%

7% of A.J. Minter's pitches are classified as Strong Challenges, which is 1% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Strong Challenge 7%

+1%

Mid Challenge 13%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Weak Challenge 9%

+0%

Non-Competitive 13%

+0%

Fringe Miss 12%

Likely Ball 18%

-1%

Meatball 2%

-3%

87% of A.J. Minter's pitches are classified as Fastball Pitches, which is 32% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has a C grade against this type of pitch from left handers.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Fastball (L) 87%

+32%

Very Fast Velo 26%

+22%

Small Break 29%

+19%

Small Drop 23%

+10%

13.2% of Connor Joe's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.3% lower than the league average. A.J. Minter strikes out 19.7% of the batters he faces, which is 7.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -2.3% +7.8% 3%

Walk +3.0% -0.3% 40%

In Play -0.7% -7.5% 39%

On Base +0.2% -4.6% 31%

Hit -2.8% -4.3% 14%

Single -1.1% -1.7% 13%

2B / 3B -0.7% -1.7% 3%

Home Run -1.0% -0.9%

29.2% of Connor Joe's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.3% lower than the league average. A.J. Minter induces Standard Grounders at a 34.0% rate, which is 0.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt 0.0% +0.6% 34%

Standard Grounder -5.3% -0.4% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.6% -1.7% 14%

Low Screamer +2.5% +2.3% 9%

Rising Liner +0.4% -3.3% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.1% +0.8% 3%

Likely Homer +0.1% -1.3% 1%

No Doubter -0.7% -0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout +1.5% -0.1% 3%

Pop up +4.2% +3.2%

22.1% of Connor Joe's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 2.2% lower than the league average. 22.8% of batted balls allowed by A.J. Minter are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.5% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +9.0% +3.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph -4.0% +0.7% 18%

87 to 93 mph -4.0% +1.9% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.2% -4.6% 24%

Above 100 mph -2.2% -1.5%

10.8% of Connor Joe's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.6% lower than the league average. 7.2% of batted balls allowed by Connor Joe are hit at this angle, which is 4.2% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.3% -0.8% 12%

-10 to 0° -3.0% +0.6% 8%

1 to 6° -1.8% -0.7% 18%

7 to 18° +1.8% -3.1% 15%

19 to 28° +1.0% +0.0% 11%

29 to 38° -0.6% -4.2% 7%

39 to 50° +0.5% +5.0% 8%

Above 50° +4.4% +3.2%

Connor Joe has 2 plate appearances against A.J. Minter in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 2 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.48	0.00	0.00	0.48			0.242

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2022-06-04	GIDP			48%	52%
2022-06-03	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

On the Way to the Plate

Contact and Outcomes

History