Matchup Machine

Connor Joe

matchup for Walker Buehler

206th out of 436 (Best 48%)

Walker Buehler

matchup for Connor Joe

406th out of 568 (Worst 29%)

Moderate advantage for Buehler

Connor Joe has a 30.4% chance of reaching base vs Walker Buehler, which is 1.8% lower than Joe's typical expectations, and 0.5% higher than batters facing Buehler.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	30.4%	18.5%	1.7%	4.6%	12.2%	11.9%	24.6%
Joe	-1.8	-1.2	-0.2	-0.2	-0.8	-0.6	-0.2
Buehler	+0.5	-2.7	-0.7	-0.1	-1.8	+3.2	+0.5

Connor Joe is slightly better vs right-handed pitching. Walker Buehler is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Joe has a C grade vs this particular release point.

Walker Buehler throws a 4-seam fastball 44% of the time. Connor Joe has a D grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

44%

Cutter (R)

17%

Kn-Curve (R)

15%

Slider (R)

13%

Sinker (R)

14% of Walker Buehler's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has a D+ grade against this type of pitch.

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 14%

+3%

Strong Challenge 7%

+2%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Weak Challenge 9%

+0%

Fringe Miss 13%

Likely Ball 18%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Meatball 3%

-3%

22% of Walker Buehler's pitches are classified as Very Fast Velocity, which is 14% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has a C- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Very Fast Velo 22%

+14%

Fastball (R) 67%

+14%

Small Break 21%

+13%

High Ride 21%

+11%

13.2% of Connor Joe's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.3% lower than the league average. Walker Buehler strikes out 21.7% of the batters he faces, which is 6.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -2.3% +6.9% 3%

Walk +3.0% -0.7% 40%

In Play -0.7% -6.2% 39%

On Base +0.2% -4.5% 31%

Hit -2.8% -3.7% 14%

Single -1.1% -1.2% 13%

2B / 3B -0.7% -1.3% 3%

Home Run -1.0% -1.2%

29.2% of Connor Joe's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.3% lower than the league average. Walker Buehler induces Standard Grounders at a 35.4% rate, which is 1.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt 0.0% 0.0% 34%

Standard Grounder -5.3% +1.0% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.6% +0.6% 14%

Low Screamer +2.5% -1.2% 9%

Rising Liner +0.4% +2.4% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.1% -0.2% 3%

Likely Homer +0.1% -1.2% 1%

No Doubter -0.7% -0.1% 20%

Routine Flyout +1.5% -0.6% 3%

Pop up +4.2% -0.6%

22.1% of Connor Joe's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 2.2% lower than the league average. 26.8% of batted balls allowed by Walker Buehler are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +9.0% +0.1% 21%

75 to 86 mph -4.0% -1.1% 18%

87 to 93 mph -4.0% -2.5% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.2% +1.0% 24%

Above 100 mph -2.2% +2.5%

10.8% of Connor Joe's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.6% lower than the league average. 9.5% of batted balls allowed by Connor Joe are hit at this angle, which is 1.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.3% +1.8% 12%

-10 to 0° -3.0% +0.6% 8%

1 to 6° -1.8% -0.3% 18%

7 to 18° +1.8% +2.0% 15%

19 to 28° +1.0% -0.3% 11%

29 to 38° -0.6% -1.9% 7%

39 to 50° +0.5% -0.8% 8%

Above 50° +4.4% -1.1%

Connor Joe has 2 plate appearances against Walker Buehler in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 1 with a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	2	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	1.000
Expected From Contact →			0.88	0.00	0.01	0.87			0.882

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2022-04-08	Single		1%	87%	12%
2022-04-08	Walk

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

On the Way to the Plate

Contact and Outcomes

History