Matchup Machine

Connor Joe

matchup for Max Fried

250th out of 436 (Worst 43%)

Max Fried

matchup for Connor Joe

391st out of 568 (Worst 31%)

Leans in favor of Fried

Connor Joe has a 30.8% chance of reaching base vs Max Fried, which is 1.5% lower than Joe's typical expectations, and 0.8% higher than batters facing Fried.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	30.8%	19.9%	1.8%	4.8%	13.3%	10.8%	26.9%
Joe	-1.5	+0.2	-0.1	0.0	+0.3	-1.7	+2.1
Fried	+0.8	-2.2	-0.2	-0.4	-1.6	+3.0	-0.8

Connor Joe is about the same vs left-handed pitching as he is against right. Max Fried is left handed with an over-the-top delivery. Joe has a C- grade vs this particular release point.

Max Fried throws a 4-seam fastball 35% of the time. Connor Joe has a C grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

35%

Curve (L)

23%

Slider (L)

18%

Sinker (L)

13%

Changeup (L)

11%

13% of Max Fried's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 4% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 13%

+4%

Likely Ball 21%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Strong Challenge 5%

-1%

Mid Challenge 10%

-1%

Non-Competitive 10%

-2%

Meatball 1%

-4%

23% of Max Fried's pitches are classified as Extreme Drop, which is 19% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Drop 23%

+19%

Slow Lob 18%

+14%

Medium Break 20%

+12%

Breaking (L) 40%

+11%

13.2% of Connor Joe's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.3% lower than the league average. Max Fried strikes out 18.3% of the batters he faces, which is 3.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -2.3% +3.1% 3%

Walk +3.0% -1.8% 40%

In Play -0.7% -1.3% 39%

On Base +0.2% 0.0% 31%

Hit -2.8% +1.8% 14%

Single -1.1% +1.6% 13%

2B / 3B -0.7% +1.5% 3%

Home Run -1.0% -1.4%

29.2% of Connor Joe's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.3% lower than the league average. Max Fried induces Standard Grounders at a 45.9% rate, which is 11.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt 0.0% +0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder -5.3% +11.4% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.6% +0.7% 14%

Low Screamer +2.5% -2.6% 9%

Rising Liner +0.4% +0.9% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.1% -1.3% 3%

Likely Homer +0.1% -1.0% 1%

No Doubter -0.7% -0.7% 20%

Routine Flyout +1.5% -6.6% 3%

Pop up +4.2% -0.9%

22.1% of Connor Joe's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 2.2% lower than the league average. 22.1% of batted balls allowed by Max Fried are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.2% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +9.0% +2.5% 21%

75 to 86 mph -4.0% +3.1% 18%

87 to 93 mph -4.0% -4.1% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.2% +0.7% 24%

Above 100 mph -2.2% -2.2%

10.8% of Connor Joe's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.6% lower than the league average. 10.4% of batted balls allowed by Connor Joe are hit at this angle, which is 1.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.3% +9.0% 12%

-10 to 0° -3.0% +2.3% 8%

1 to 6° -1.8% +0.1% 18%

7 to 18° +1.8% +1.2% 15%

19 to 28° +1.0% -4.3% 11%

29 to 38° -0.6% -1.0% 7%

39 to 50° +0.5% -3.2% 8%

Above 50° +4.4% -4.1%

Connor Joe has 8 plate appearances against Max Fried in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 7 with a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	8	7	2	0	0	2	1	1	0.286
Expected From Contact →			1.75	0.02	0.28	1.46			0.251

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-06-29	Walk
2024-06-29	Single			71%	29%
2024-06-29	Groundout			31%	69%
2023-08-09	Flyout				99%
2023-08-09	Flyout	1%	2%		97%
2022-06-03	Single		25%	33%	42%
2022-06-03	Strikeout
2022-06-03	Groundout			10%	90%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

On the Way to the Plate

Contact and Outcomes

History