Matchup Machine

Connor Joe

matchup for Seth Lugo

145th out of 436 (Best 34%)

Seth Lugo

matchup for Connor Joe

379th out of 568 (Worst 33%)

Leans in favor of Lugo

Connor Joe has a 30.3% chance of reaching base vs Seth Lugo, which is 1.9% lower than Joe's typical expectations, and 0.6% lower than batters facing Lugo.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	30.3%	20.9%	1.8%	5.0%	14.1%	9.4%	24.4%
Joe	-1.9	+1.2	-0.1	+0.1	+1.1	-3.1	-0.4
Lugo	-0.6	-2.5	-0.8	+0.3	-1.9	+1.9	+0.7

Connor Joe is slightly better vs right-handed pitching. Seth Lugo is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Joe has a C grade vs this particular release point.

Seth Lugo throws a 4-seam fastball 29% of the time. Connor Joe has a D grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

29%

Curve (R)

28%

Sinker (R)

17%

Slider (R)

13%

Changeup (R)

10% of Seth Lugo's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 10%

+2%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Chaser 6%

Non-Competitive 12%

-1%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Likely Ball 18%

-2%

25% of Seth Lugo's pitches are classified as Extreme Drop, which is 21% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Drop 25%

+21%

Large Break 18%

+14%

Extreme Slow Velo 16%

+11%

Breaking (R) 41%

+10%

13.2% of Connor Joe's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.3% lower than the league average. Seth Lugo strikes out 16.6% of the batters he faces, which is 1.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -2.3% +1.0% 3%

Walk +3.0% -2.5% 40%

In Play -0.7% +1.5% 39%

On Base +0.2% -0.8% 31%

Hit -2.8% +1.7% 14%

Single -1.1% +0.7% 13%

2B / 3B -0.7% +1.0% 3%

Home Run -1.0% +0.0%

29.2% of Connor Joe's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.3% lower than the league average. Seth Lugo induces Standard Grounders at a 35.5% rate, which is 1.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt 0.0% +2.1% 34%

Standard Grounder -5.3% +1.1% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.6% -1.1% 14%

Low Screamer +2.5% -1.2% 9%

Rising Liner +0.4% -1.4% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.1% +0.6% 3%

Likely Homer +0.1% +2.3% 1%

No Doubter -0.7% -0.5% 20%

Routine Flyout +1.5% +0.2% 3%

Pop up +4.2% -2.2%

22.1% of Connor Joe's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 2.2% lower than the league average. 25.0% of batted balls allowed by Seth Lugo are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +9.0% +0.0% 21%

75 to 86 mph -4.0% +0.6% 18%

87 to 93 mph -4.0% -1.9% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.2% +0.5% 24%

Above 100 mph -2.2% +0.8%

10.8% of Connor Joe's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.6% lower than the league average. 13.6% of batted balls allowed by Connor Joe are hit at this angle, which is 2.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.3% +3.7% 12%

-10 to 0° -3.0% -0.5% 8%

1 to 6° -1.8% +0.7% 18%

7 to 18° +1.8% -1.9% 15%

19 to 28° +1.0% -1.8% 11%

29 to 38° -0.6% +2.2% 7%

39 to 50° +0.5% +0.5% 8%

Above 50° +4.4% -2.9%

Connor Joe has 1 plate appearance against Seth Lugo in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 1.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.10	0.05	0.05	0.00			0.097

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2022-05-21	Flyout	5%	5%		90%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

On the Way to the Plate

Contact and Outcomes

History