Matchup Machine

Connor Joe

matchup for E. Rodriguez

185th out of 436 (Best 43%)

Eduardo Rodriguez

matchup for Connor Joe

182nd out of 568 (Best 33%)

Moderate advantage for Joe

Connor Joe has a 33.4% chance of reaching base vs Eduardo Rodriguez, which is 1.2% higher than Joe's typical expectations, and 0.1% higher than batters facing Rodriguez.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	33.4%	22.1%	2.0%	6.6%	13.5%	11.2%	24.4%
Joe	+1.2	+2.4	+0.1	+1.8	+0.6	-1.3	-0.4
Rodriguez	+0.1	-2.6	-0.9	+0.8	-2.6	+2.7	+1.4

Connor Joe is about the same vs left-handed pitching as he is against right. Eduardo Rodriguez is left handed with an over-the-top delivery. Joe has a C- grade vs this particular release point.

Eduardo Rodriguez throws a 4-seam fastball 40% of the time. Connor Joe has a C grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

40%

Changeup (L)

21%

Cutter (L)

19%

Sinker (L)

Slider (L)

10% of Eduardo Rodriguez's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 10%

+2%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Fringe Miss 14%

+1%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Meatball 6%

Non-Competitive 11%

-1%

Mid Challenge 10%

-1%

Strong Challenge 3%

-2%

46% of Eduardo Rodriguez's pitches are classified as Low Ride, which is 23% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has a B- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Low Ride 46%

+23%

Medium Fast Velo 31%

+15%

Fastball (L) 68%

+13%

Medium Break 30%

+10%

Offspeed (L) 21%

+9%

13.2% of Connor Joe's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.3% lower than the league average. Eduardo Rodriguez strikes out 16.2% of the batters he faces, which is 0.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -2.3% +0.6% 3%

Walk +3.0% 0.0% 40%

In Play -0.7% -0.6% 39%

On Base +0.2% +0.0% 31%

Hit -2.8% +0.0% 14%

Single -1.1% +0.0% 13%

2B / 3B -0.7% +0.1% 3%

Home Run -1.0% -0.1%

29.2% of Connor Joe's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.3% lower than the league average. Eduardo Rodriguez induces Standard Grounders at a 34.4% rate, which is 0.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt 0.0% +0.5% 34%

Standard Grounder -5.3% -0.1% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.6% +0.3% 14%

Low Screamer +2.5% +1.0% 9%

Rising Liner +0.4% -0.6% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.1% -0.7% 3%

Likely Homer +0.1% -0.1% 1%

No Doubter -0.7% +0.1% 20%

Routine Flyout +1.5% -1.1% 3%

Pop up +4.2% +0.6%

22.1% of Connor Joe's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 2.2% lower than the league average. 23.5% of batted balls allowed by Eduardo Rodriguez are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +9.0% +2.0% 21%

75 to 86 mph -4.0% +1.2% 18%

87 to 93 mph -4.0% -1.8% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.2% -0.5% 24%

Above 100 mph -2.2% -0.8%

10.8% of Connor Joe's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.6% lower than the league average. 12.8% of batted balls allowed by Connor Joe are hit at this angle, which is 1.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.3% +1.0% 12%

-10 to 0° -3.0% +0.5% 8%

1 to 6° -1.8% -0.7% 18%

7 to 18° +1.8% -1.0% 15%

19 to 28° +1.0% -1.9% 11%

29 to 38° -0.6% +1.3% 7%

39 to 50° +0.5% +0.3% 8%

Above 50° +4.4% +0.4%

Connor Joe has 6 plate appearances against Eduardo Rodriguez in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 6 with a double and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	6	6	2	0	1	1	1	0	0.333
Expected From Contact →			1.62	0.00	0.50	1.11			0.270

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-08-02	Pop Out				99%
2023-08-02	Groundout		8%	3%	89%
2023-08-02	Double		39%	17%	44%
2023-05-17	Lineout		2%	7%	91%
2023-05-17	Strikeout
2023-05-17	Single			85%	15%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

On the Way to the Plate

Contact and Outcomes

History