Matchup Machine

Connor Joe

matchup for Derek Law

305th out of 436 (Worst 30%)

Derek Law

matchup for Connor Joe

216th out of 568 (Best 39%)

Moderate advantage for Joe

Connor Joe has a 33.4% chance of reaching base vs Derek Law, which is 1.2% higher than Joe's typical expectations, and 2.0% higher than batters facing Law.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	33.4%	21.8%	1.5%	4.7%	15.7%	11.6%	18.8%
Joe	+1.2	+2.1	-0.4	-0.2	+2.7	-0.9	-6.0
Law	+2.0	-2.4	-0.6	+0.0	-1.8	+4.4	-1.5

Connor Joe is slightly better vs right-handed pitching. Derek Law is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Joe has a D grade vs this particular release point.

Derek Law throws a Slider 30% of the time. Connor Joe has a D grade against right-handed Sliders

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Slider (R)

30%

4-Seam (R)

27%

Cutter (R)

18%

Curve (R)

12%

Changeup (R)

Sinker (R)

21% of Derek Law's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 21%

+2%

Weak Challenge 10%

+2%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Fringe Miss 12%

Edge Painter 17%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Non-Competitive 12%

-1%

Mid Challenge 9%

-2%

32% of Derek Law's pitches are classified as Small Break Toward Third Base, which is 21% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has a D grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Small Break 32%

+21%

Breaking (R) 42%

+11%

13.2% of Connor Joe's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.3% lower than the league average. Derek Law strikes out 15.0% of the batters he faces, which is 0.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -2.3% -0.7% 3%

Walk +3.0% +1.0% 40%

In Play -0.7% -0.3% 39%

On Base +0.2% +1.6% 31%

Hit -2.8% +0.6% 14%

Single -1.1% +1.3% 13%

2B / 3B -0.7% +1.1% 3%

Home Run -1.0% -1.8%

29.2% of Connor Joe's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.3% lower than the league average. Derek Law induces Standard Grounders at a 41.9% rate, which is 7.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt 0.0% -0.3% 34%

Standard Grounder -5.3% +7.5% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.6% +0.1% 14%

Low Screamer +2.5% +0.5% 9%

Rising Liner +0.4% -0.4% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.1% -0.4% 3%

Likely Homer +0.1% -2.6% 1%

No Doubter -0.7% -1.0% 20%

Routine Flyout +1.5% -3.7% 3%

Pop up +4.2% +0.3%

22.1% of Connor Joe's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 2.2% lower than the league average. 20.9% of batted balls allowed by Derek Law are hit at above 100 mph, which is 3.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +9.0% +1.0% 21%

75 to 86 mph -4.0% +2.8% 18%

87 to 93 mph -4.0% +0.9% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.2% -1.4% 24%

Above 100 mph -2.2% -3.3%

10.8% of Connor Joe's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.6% lower than the league average. 6.5% of batted balls allowed by Connor Joe are hit at this angle, which is 4.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.3% +3.1% 12%

-10 to 0° -3.0% +1.2% 8%

1 to 6° -1.8% +2.6% 18%

7 to 18° +1.8% +0.6% 15%

19 to 28° +1.0% +0.9% 11%

29 to 38° -0.6% -4.9% 7%

39 to 50° +0.5% -1.7% 8%

Above 50° +4.4% -1.7%

Connor Joe has 7 plate appearances against Derek Law in the last 3 years. He is 4 for 7 with a home run and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	7	7	4	1	0	3	0	0	0.571
Expected From Contact →			3.58	0.97	0.23	2.38			0.511

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-09-07	Groundout			17%	83%
2024-04-04	Home Run	97%	2%		2%
2024-04-01	Single			35%	65%
2023-08-13	Lineout		20%	12%	68%
2023-08-11	Single		2%	75%	23%
2023-04-21	Single			91%	9%
2022-09-04	Groundout			7%	93%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

On the Way to the Plate

Contact and Outcomes

History