Matchup Machine

Connor Joe

matchup for Buck Farmer

213th out of 436 (Best 50%)

Buck Farmer

matchup for Connor Joe

304th out of 568 (Worst 47%)

Leans in favor of Joe

Connor Joe has a 33.3% chance of reaching base vs Buck Farmer, which is 1.1% higher than Joe's typical expectations, and 1.7% higher than batters facing Farmer.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	33.3%	18.7%	1.7%	4.6%	12.4%	14.7%	26.4%
Joe	+1.1	-1.0	-0.2	-0.2	-0.6	+2.2	+1.6
Farmer	+1.7	-3.1	-1.2	-0.2	-1.7	+4.7	-0.5

Connor Joe is slightly better vs right-handed pitching. Buck Farmer is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Joe has a C grade vs this particular release point.

Buck Farmer throws a 4-seam fastball 45% of the time. Connor Joe has a D grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

45%

Slider (R)

27%

Changeup (R)

23%

8% of Buck Farmer's pitches are classified as Chasers, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Chaser 8%

+2%

Likely Ball 21%

+1%

Meatball 7%

+1%

Non-Competitive 13%

+0%

Fringe Miss 12%

Strong Challenge 5%

Edge Painter 16%

-1%

Mid Challenge 10%

-1%

Weak Challenge 7%

-1%

44% of Buck Farmer's pitches are classified as Large Break Toward Third Base, which is 23% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has a D+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Large Break 44%

+23%

Offspeed (R) 23%

+12%

Very Slow Velo 23%

+9%

Small Drop 22%

+9%

13.2% of Connor Joe's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.3% lower than the league average. Buck Farmer strikes out 15.6% of the batters he faces, which is 0.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -2.3% +0.8% 3%

Walk +3.0% +0.9% 40%

In Play -0.7% -1.7% 39%

On Base +0.2% -2.0% 31%

Hit -2.8% -2.9% 14%

Single -1.1% -1.6% 13%

2B / 3B -0.7% -1.4% 3%

Home Run -1.0% +0.2%

29.2% of Connor Joe's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.3% lower than the league average. Buck Farmer induces Standard Grounders at a 32.6% rate, which is 1.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt 0.0% -0.3% 34%

Standard Grounder -5.3% -1.9% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.6% -1.2% 14%

Low Screamer +2.5% -1.3% 9%

Rising Liner +0.4% -0.3% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.1% +1.5% 3%

Likely Homer +0.1% -1.1% 1%

No Doubter -0.7% 0.0% 20%

Routine Flyout +1.5% +0.3% 3%

Pop up +4.2% +4.3%

22.1% of Connor Joe's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 2.2% lower than the league average. 22.3% of batted balls allowed by Buck Farmer are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +9.0% +1.0% 21%

75 to 86 mph -4.0% +2.8% 18%

87 to 93 mph -4.0% -0.6% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.2% -1.1% 24%

Above 100 mph -2.2% -2.0%

10.8% of Connor Joe's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.6% lower than the league average. 11.6% of batted balls allowed by Connor Joe are hit at this angle, which is 0.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.3% -1.6% 12%

-10 to 0° -3.0% -0.8% 8%

1 to 6° -1.8% -0.7% 18%

7 to 18° +1.8% -2.0% 15%

19 to 28° +1.0% -1.3% 11%

29 to 38° -0.6% +0.2% 7%

39 to 50° +0.5% -0.1% 8%

Above 50° +4.4% +6.3%

Connor Joe has 5 plate appearances against Buck Farmer in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 5 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.26	0.00	0.06	0.20			0.052

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-09-21	Strikeout
2023-09-24	Flyout				100%
2023-04-22	Flyout		6%	4%	90%
2023-04-01	Pop Out				100%
2022-05-01	Groundout			16%	84%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

On the Way to the Plate

Contact and Outcomes

History