Matchup Machine

Connor Joe

matchup for Kyle Hendricks

316th out of 436 (Worst 28%)

Kyle Hendricks

matchup for Connor Joe

46th out of 568 (Best 9%)

Strong advantage for Joe

Connor Joe has a 34.6% chance of reaching base vs Kyle Hendricks, which is 2.4% higher than Joe's typical expectations, and 2.0% higher than batters facing Hendricks.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	34.6%	23.8%	1.9%	6.7%	15.2%	10.8%	13.7%
Joe	+2.4	+4.1	0.0	+1.9	+2.2	-1.7	-11.0
Hendricks	+2.0	-1.0	-1.0	+0.9	-0.9	+3.1	-1.5

Connor Joe is slightly better vs right-handed pitching. Kyle Hendricks is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Joe has a C+ grade vs this particular release point.

Kyle Hendricks throws a Sinker 37% of the time. Connor Joe has an A- grade against right-handed Sinkers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Sinker (R)

37%

Changeup (R)

33%

4-Seam (R)

19%

Curve (R)

11%

19% of Kyle Hendricks's pitches are classified as Edge Painters, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Edge Painter 19%

+2%

Chaser 8%

+2%

Fringe Miss 14%

+1%

Meatball 7%

+1%

Weak Challenge 9%

+0%

Likely Ball 19%

-1%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Mid Challenge 8%

-3%

36% of Kyle Hendricks's pitches are classified as Medium Slow Velocity, which is 23% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has a C- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Slow Velo 36%

+23%

Offspeed (R) 33%

+22%

Large Break 43%

+22%

Low Ride 42%

+19%

13.2% of Connor Joe's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.3% lower than the league average. Kyle Hendricks strikes out 15.4% of the batters he faces, which is 1.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -2.3% -1.3% 3%

Walk +3.0% -3.4% 40%

In Play -0.7% +4.7% 39%

On Base +0.2% -1.1% 31%

Hit -2.8% +2.3% 14%

Single -1.1% +1.8% 13%

2B / 3B -0.7% +1.1% 3%

Home Run -1.0% -0.6%

29.2% of Connor Joe's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.3% lower than the league average. Kyle Hendricks induces Standard Grounders at a 36.9% rate, which is 2.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt 0.0% -0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder -5.3% +2.4% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.6% -0.8% 14%

Low Screamer +2.5% +1.3% 9%

Rising Liner +0.4% -0.4% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.1% -0.5% 3%

Likely Homer +0.1% -1.0% 1%

No Doubter -0.7% -0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout +1.5% -1.2% 3%

Pop up +4.2% +0.4%

22.1% of Connor Joe's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 2.2% lower than the league average. 20.4% of batted balls allowed by Kyle Hendricks are hit at above 100 mph, which is 3.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +9.0% +6.0% 21%

75 to 86 mph -4.0% -0.5% 18%

87 to 93 mph -4.0% -0.4% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.2% -1.3% 24%

Above 100 mph -2.2% -3.8%

10.8% of Connor Joe's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.6% lower than the league average. 10.3% of batted balls allowed by Connor Joe are hit at this angle, which is 1.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.3% -2.0% 12%

-10 to 0° -3.0% +2.9% 8%

1 to 6° -1.8% -1.2% 18%

7 to 18° +1.8% +2.0% 15%

19 to 28° +1.0% +0.4% 11%

29 to 38° -0.6% -1.1% 7%

39 to 50° +0.5% -0.9% 8%

Above 50° +4.4% -0.1%

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	19	15	8	0	0	8	2	4	0.533
Expected From Contact →			5.40	0.00	0.46	4.93			0.360

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-09-03	Strikeout
2024-09-03	Single			26%	74%
2024-08-28	Single			92%	7%
2024-08-28	Walk
2024-05-17	Single			62%	38%
2024-05-17	Groundout			9%	91%
2024-05-17	Single		33%	54%	14%
2024-05-12	Strikeout
2024-05-12	Walk
2023-09-21	Single			78%	22%
2023-09-21	Lineout		5%	4%	91%
2023-09-21	Single			22%	78%
2023-09-21	Pop Out				98%
2023-08-25	Walk
2023-08-25	Groundout		2%	9%	89%
2023-08-25	Single		1%	88%	10%
2023-06-21	Single			47%	52%
2023-06-21	Flyout		2%		98%
2023-06-21	Walk

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

On the Way to the Plate

Contact and Outcomes

History