Matchup Machine

Connor Joe

matchup for Gerrit Cole

230th out of 436 (Worst 47%)

Gerrit Cole

matchup for Connor Joe

301st out of 568 (Worst 47%)

Leans in favor of Joe

Connor Joe has a 32.5% chance of reaching base vs Gerrit Cole, which is 0.2% higher than Joe's typical expectations, and 1.9% higher than batters facing Cole.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	32.5%	19.7%	1.6%	5.4%	12.8%	12.7%	24.3%
Joe	+0.2	+0.0	-0.3	+0.5	-0.2	+0.2	-0.5
Cole	+1.9	-2.5	-1.0	-0.1	-1.4	+4.3	+1.4

Connor Joe is slightly better vs right-handed pitching. Gerrit Cole is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Joe has a C+ grade vs this particular release point.

Gerrit Cole throws a 4-seam fastball 50% of the time. Connor Joe has a D grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

50%

Slider (R)

21%

Kn-Curve (R)

13%

Cutter (R)

Changeup (R)

8% of Gerrit Cole's pitches are classified as Strong Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Strong Challenge 8%

+3%

Mid Challenge 13%

+2%

Likely Ball 21%

+1%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Edge Painter 17%

+0%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Weak Challenge 7%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Meatball 2%

-4%

27% of Gerrit Cole's pitches are classified as Very Fast Velocity, which is 18% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has a C- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Very Fast Velo 27%

+18%

High Ride 27%

+17%

Small Break 20%

+9%

13.2% of Connor Joe's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.3% lower than the league average. Gerrit Cole strikes out 21.9% of the batters he faces, which is 8.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -2.3% +8.6% 3%

Walk +3.0% -2.2% 40%

In Play -0.7% -6.4% 39%

On Base +0.2% -6.2% 31%

Hit -2.8% -4.0% 14%

Single -1.1% -1.9% 13%

2B / 3B -0.7% -1.7% 3%

Home Run -1.0% -0.4%

29.2% of Connor Joe's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.3% lower than the league average. Gerrit Cole induces Standard Grounders at a 32.9% rate, which is 1.5% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt 0.0% -0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder -5.3% -1.5% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.6% -0.1% 14%

Low Screamer +2.5% -0.2% 9%

Rising Liner +0.4% +0.3% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.1% +0.1% 3%

Likely Homer +0.1% -0.8% 1%

No Doubter -0.7% -0.4% 20%

Routine Flyout +1.5% +2.7% 3%

Pop up +4.2% +0.1%

22.1% of Connor Joe's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 2.2% lower than the league average. 23.8% of batted balls allowed by Gerrit Cole are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.5% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +9.0% -1.8% 21%

75 to 86 mph -4.0% 0.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph -4.0% +1.7% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.2% +0.6% 24%

Above 100 mph -2.2% -0.5%

10.8% of Connor Joe's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.6% lower than the league average. 11.9% of batted balls allowed by Connor Joe are hit at this angle, which is 0.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.3% +0.4% 12%

-10 to 0° -3.0% -0.8% 8%

1 to 6° -1.8% -0.6% 18%

7 to 18° +1.8% 0.0% 15%

19 to 28° +1.0% -0.4% 11%

29 to 38° -0.6% +0.5% 7%

39 to 50° +0.5% +0.5% 8%

Above 50° +4.4% +0.3%

Connor Joe has 3 plate appearances against Gerrit Cole in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 3.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.38	0.00	0.01	0.37			0.128

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-15	Groundout			14%	86%
2023-09-15	Flyout				99%
2023-09-15	Groundout			22%	77%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

On the Way to the Plate

Contact and Outcomes

History