Matchup Machine

Connor Joe

matchup for Chris Sale

285th out of 436 (Worst 35%)

Chris Sale

matchup for Connor Joe

351st out of 568 (Worst 38%)

Leans in favor of Sale

Connor Joe has a 32.4% chance of reaching base vs Chris Sale, which is 0.2% higher than Joe's typical expectations, and 2.1% higher than batters facing Sale.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	32.4%	20.7%	1.9%	5.3%	13.5%	11.8%	31.3%
Joe	+0.2	+1.0	+0.0	+0.5	+0.5	-0.7	+6.6
Sale	+2.1	-2.0	-0.2	-0.2	-1.5	+4.1	+0.2

Connor Joe is about the same vs left-handed pitching as he is against right. Chris Sale is left handed with an extreme release toward the first base side. Joe has a D grade vs this particular release point.

Chris Sale throws a 4-seam fastball 39% of the time. Connor Joe has a C grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

39%

Slider (L)

38%

Changeup (L)

15%

8% of Chris Sale's pitches are classified as Strong Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Strong Challenge 8%

+3%

Mid Challenge 13%

+2%

Chaser 8%

+2%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Weak Challenge 9%

Likely Ball 18%

-1%

Non-Competitive 10%

-2%

Meatball 2%

-4%

46% of Chris Sale's pitches are classified as Extreme Break Toward Third Base, which is 30% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has a B- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Break 46%

+30%

Large Drop 28%

+23%

Extreme Slow Velo 22%

+13%

Breaking (L) 38%

+8%

13.2% of Connor Joe's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.3% lower than the league average. Chris Sale strikes out 23.2% of the batters he faces, which is 11.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -2.3% +11.2% 3%

Walk +3.0% -2.1% 40%

In Play -0.7% -9.1% 39%

On Base +0.2% -4.8% 31%

Hit -2.8% -2.7% 14%

Single -1.1% -0.9% 13%

2B / 3B -0.7% -1.1% 3%

Home Run -1.0% -0.6%

29.2% of Connor Joe's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.3% lower than the league average. Chris Sale induces Standard Grounders at a 35.1% rate, which is 0.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt 0.0% -0.5% 34%

Standard Grounder -5.3% +0.7% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.6% -1.3% 14%

Low Screamer +2.5% +2.0% 9%

Rising Liner +0.4% +0.2% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.1% +1.1% 3%

Likely Homer +0.1% -1.1% 1%

No Doubter -0.7% -0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout +1.5% -0.4% 3%

Pop up +4.2% -0.4%

22.1% of Connor Joe's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 2.2% lower than the league average. 21.4% of batted balls allowed by Chris Sale are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +9.0% +1.4% 21%

75 to 86 mph -4.0% +4.3% 18%

87 to 93 mph -4.0% -0.8% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.2% -2.0% 24%

Above 100 mph -2.2% -2.9%

10.8% of Connor Joe's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.6% lower than the league average. 13.0% of batted balls allowed by Connor Joe are hit at this angle, which is 1.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.3% -0.3% 12%

-10 to 0° -3.0% -0.9% 8%

1 to 6° -1.8% +0.5% 18%

7 to 18° +1.8% -0.9% 15%

19 to 28° +1.0% +0.4% 11%

29 to 38° -0.6% +1.6% 7%

39 to 50° +0.5% +1.0% 8%

Above 50° +4.4% -1.4%

Connor Joe has 3 plate appearances against Chris Sale in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 2 with a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	2	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.500
Expected From Contact →			0.74	0.00	0.03	0.72			0.372

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-05-26	Lineout		2%	22%	76%
2024-05-26	Single			50%	49%
2024-05-26	Walk

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

On the Way to the Plate

Contact and Outcomes

History