Matchup Machine

Connor Joe

matchup for Jake Diekman

352nd out of 436 (Worst 19%)

Jake Diekman

matchup for Connor Joe

63rd out of 568 (Best 12%)

Strong advantage for Joe

Connor Joe has a 38.8% chance of reaching base vs Jake Diekman, which is 6.6% higher than Joe's typical expectations, and 3.9% higher than batters facing Diekman.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	38.8%	18.2%	2.1%	5.0%	11.2%	20.5%	27.3%
Joe	+6.6	-1.5	+0.2	+0.1	-1.8	+8.1	+2.5
Diekman	+3.9	-2.1	-0.3	-0.1	-1.7	+6.0	-1.6

Connor Joe is about the same vs left-handed pitching as he is against right. Jake Diekman is left handed with an extreme release toward the first base side. Joe has a D grade vs this particular release point.

Jake Diekman throws a 4-seam fastball 50% of the time. Connor Joe has a C grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

50%

Slider (L)

34%

Sinker (L)

12%

14% of Jake Diekman's pitches are classified as Non-Competitive, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Non-Competitive 14%

+2%

Mid Challenge 13%

+1%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Weak Challenge 9%

+0%

Chaser 6%

+0%

Edge Painter 17%

Fringe Miss 12%

-1%

Likely Ball 18%

-1%

Meatball 2%

-4%

49% of Jake Diekman's pitches are classified as Extreme Break Toward Third Base, which is 33% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has a B- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Break 49%

+33%

Fast Velo 35%

+25%

Low Ride 47%

+23%

13.2% of Connor Joe's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.3% lower than the league average. Jake Diekman strikes out 18.7% of the batters he faces, which is 6.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -2.3% +6.4% 3%

Walk +3.0% +6.9% 40%

In Play -0.7% -13.3% 39%

On Base +0.2% -0.3% 31%

Hit -2.8% -7.2% 14%

Single -1.1% -4.1% 13%

2B / 3B -0.7% -3.5% 3%

Home Run -1.0% +0.4%

29.2% of Connor Joe's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.3% lower than the league average. Jake Diekman induces Standard Grounders at a 39.0% rate, which is 4.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt 0.0% +1.0% 34%

Standard Grounder -5.3% +4.5% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.6% -2.6% 14%

Low Screamer +2.5% -1.1% 9%

Rising Liner +0.4% -1.3% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.1% -1.2% 3%

Likely Homer +0.1% +0.1% 1%

No Doubter -0.7% -0.6% 20%

Routine Flyout +1.5% +1.4% 3%

Pop up +4.2% -0.3%

22.1% of Connor Joe's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 2.2% lower than the league average. 22.1% of batted balls allowed by Jake Diekman are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.2% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +9.0% +4.8% 21%

75 to 86 mph -4.0% -2.1% 18%

87 to 93 mph -4.0% +2.5% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.2% -3.0% 24%

Above 100 mph -2.2% -2.2%

10.8% of Connor Joe's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.6% lower than the league average. 9.4% of batted balls allowed by Connor Joe are hit at this angle, which is 2.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.3% +4.0% 12%

-10 to 0° -3.0% -0.9% 8%

1 to 6° -1.8% +0.2% 18%

7 to 18° +1.8% -2.2% 15%

19 to 28° +1.0% -0.7% 11%

29 to 38° -0.6% -2.0% 7%

39 to 50° +0.5% +1.2% 8%

Above 50° +4.4% +0.4%

Connor Joe has 2 plate appearances against Jake Diekman in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 2 with a double and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	2	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.500
Expected From Contact →			0.93	0.00	0.07	0.86			0.463

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-04-17	Pop Out				99%
2023-04-07	Double		7%	85%	8%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

On the Way to the Plate

Contact and Outcomes

History