Matchup Machine

Connor Joe

matchup for Adam Ottavino

188th out of 436 (Best 44%)

Adam Ottavino

matchup for Connor Joe

334th out of 568 (Worst 41%)

Leans in favor of Ottavino

Connor Joe has a 33.1% chance of reaching base vs Adam Ottavino, which is 0.9% higher than Joe's typical expectations, and 0.9% higher than batters facing Ottavino.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	33.1%	19.2%	1.8%	4.7%	12.6%	13.9%	29.5%
Joe	+0.9	-0.6	-0.1	-0.1	-0.4	+1.4	+4.7
Ottavino	+0.9	-2.4	-1.0	-0.1	-1.3	+3.3	+2.5

Connor Joe is slightly better vs right-handed pitching. Adam Ottavino is right handed with an extreme release toward the third base side. Joe has a D grade vs this particular release point.

Adam Ottavino throws a Slider 43% of the time. Connor Joe has a D grade against right-handed Sliders

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Slider (R)

43%

Sinker (R)

20%

4-Seam (R)

11%

Cutter (R)

8% of Adam Ottavino's pitches are classified as Strong Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Strong Challenge 8%

+3%

Non-Competitive 16%

+3%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Edge Painter 17%

Weak Challenge 8%

Chaser 5%

-1%

Likely Ball 18%

-1%

Fringe Miss 11%

-2%

Meatball 4%

-2%

22% of Adam Ottavino's pitches are classified as Extreme Break Toward Third Base, which is 20% higher than the MLB average. Connor Joe has a B- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Break 22%

+20%

Very Slow Velo 30%

+17%

Medium Drop 27%

+14%

Breaking (R) 43%

+12%

13.2% of Connor Joe's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.3% lower than the league average. Adam Ottavino strikes out 20.0% of the batters he faces, which is 7.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -2.3% +7.0% 3%

Walk +3.0% +2.5% 40%

In Play -0.7% -9.5% 39%

On Base +0.2% -4.5% 31%

Hit -2.8% -6.9% 14%

Single -1.1% -3.1% 13%

2B / 3B -0.7% -2.7% 3%

Home Run -1.0% -1.1%

29.2% of Connor Joe's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.3% lower than the league average. Adam Ottavino induces Standard Grounders at a 39.8% rate, which is 5.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt 0.0% +0.9% 34%

Standard Grounder -5.3% +5.4% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.6% -1.1% 14%

Low Screamer +2.5% -0.8% 9%

Rising Liner +0.4% -0.6% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.1% -0.6% 3%

Likely Homer +0.1% -0.8% 1%

No Doubter -0.7% -0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout +1.5% -3.9% 3%

Pop up +4.2% +1.7%

22.1% of Connor Joe's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 2.2% lower than the league average. 22.3% of batted balls allowed by Adam Ottavino are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +9.0% +0.9% 21%

75 to 86 mph -4.0% +2.1% 18%

87 to 93 mph -4.0% +0.5% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.2% -1.5% 24%

Above 100 mph -2.2% -2.0%

10.8% of Connor Joe's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.6% lower than the league average. 11.8% of batted balls allowed by Connor Joe are hit at this angle, which is 0.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.3% +3.3% 12%

-10 to 0° -3.0% +0.8% 8%

1 to 6° -1.8% +0.6% 18%

7 to 18° +1.8% -2.5% 15%

19 to 28° +1.0% -1.7% 11%

29 to 38° -0.6% +0.3% 7%

39 to 50° +0.5% -1.7% 8%

Above 50° +4.4% +0.8%

Connor Joe has 2 plate appearances against Adam Ottavino in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 1 with a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00			0.000

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-08-14	Strikeout
2022-05-22	Walk

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

On the Way to the Plate

Contact and Outcomes

History