Matchup Machine

Jose Trevino

matchup for Cade Povich

177th out of 436 (Best 41%)

Cade Povich

matchup for Jose Trevino

340th out of 568 (Worst 40%)

Leans in favor of Trevino

Jose Trevino has a 28.7% chance of reaching base vs Cade Povich, which is 1.3% lower than Trevino's typical expectations, and 2.4% lower than batters facing Povich.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	28.7%	22.4%	2.2%	6.3%	13.9%	6.3%	17.8%
Trevino	-1.3	-0.6	-0.4	+1.2	-1.3	-0.7	-1.8
Povich	-2.4	+0.2	-0.6	+0.6	+0.2	-2.6	-5.6

Jose Trevino is about the same vs left-handed pitching as he is against right. Cade Povich is left handed with a moderate release toward the first base side. Trevino has an A grade vs this particular release point.

Cade Povich throws a 4-seam fastball 42% of the time. Jose Trevino has a B- grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

42%

Curve (L)

20%

Slider (L)

13%

Changeup (L)

11%

Cutter (L)

Sinker (L)

14% of Cade Povich's pitches are classified as Non-Competitive, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Jose Trevino has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Non-Competitive 14%

+2%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Meatball 7%

+1%

Weak Challenge 10%

+1%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Edge Painter 17%

Chaser 5%

-1%

Fringe Miss 11%

-1%

Likely Ball 17%

-3%

20% of Cade Povich's pitches are classified as Extreme Drop, which is 15% higher than the MLB average. Jose Trevino has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Drop 20%

+15%

Medium Fast Velo 29%

+14%

10.5% of Jose Trevino's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 6.9% lower than the league average. Cade Povich strikes out 15.3% of the batters he faces, which is 3.2% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Strikeout -6.9% -3.2% 5%

Walk -1.1% +1.2% 36%

In Play +8.0% +2.0% 39%

On Base 0.0% -3.6% 31%

Hit +1.1% -4.8% 14%

Single +0.7% -2.8% 13%

2B / 3B +1.0% -2.4% 3%

Home Run -0.6% +0.3%

34.4% of Jose Trevino's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 0.0% higher than the league average. Cade Povich induces Standard Grounders at a 27.3% rate, which is 7.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.4% -0.4% 34%

Standard Grounder +0.0% -7.1% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.0% +0.2% 14%

Low Screamer -0.6% -2.2% 9%

Rising Liner -0.1% +1.0% 4%

Maybe Homer -2.5% +0.3% 3%

Likely Homer +1.5% 0.0% 1%

No Doubter -1.1% +0.5% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.4% +4.4% 3%

Pop up +1.0% +3.3%

24.7% of Jose Trevino's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 0.4% higher than the league average. 24.4% of batted balls allowed by Cade Povich are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +0.8% -0.4% 21%

75 to 86 mph -3.5% +0.6% 18%

87 to 93 mph +0.9% -1.2% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.4% +0.9% 24%

Above 100 mph +0.4% +0.2%

8.3% of Jose Trevino's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 3.1% lower than the league average. 16.7% of batted balls allowed by Jose Trevino are hit at this angle, which is 5.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +3.9% -4.6% 12%

-10 to 0° -1.4% -1.3% 8%

1 to 6° +0.2% -0.1% 18%

7 to 18° +2.1% -1.4% 15%

19 to 28° -1.7% -3.3% 11%

29 to 38° -3.1% +5.3% 7%

39 to 50° -2.0% +1.0% 8%

Above 50° +1.9% +4.6%

Jose Trevino has 4 plate appearances against Cade Povich in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 4 with a double and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	4	4	1	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
Expected From Contact →			0.62	0.00	0.42	0.20			0.156

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-07-12	Strikeout
2024-07-12	Double		42%	9%	49%
2024-06-19	Groundout			6%	94%
2024-06-19	Groundout			5%	95%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

On the Way to the Plate

Contact and Outcomes

History