Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Jose Trevino

matchup for Aaron Civale

334th out of 436 (Worst 24%)

Aaron Civale

matchup for Jose Trevino

280th out of 568 (Best 50%)

Leans in favor of Trevino

Jose Trevino has a 29.3% chance of reaching base vs Aaron Civale, which is 0.7% lower than Trevino's typical expectations, and 0.2% higher than batters facing Civale.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	29.3%	23.1%	2.9%	5.3%	14.9%	6.2%	17.3%
Trevino	-0.7	+0.1	+0.3	+0.1	-0.3	-0.8	-2.3
Civale	+0.2	+1.9	+0.1	+0.3	+1.5	-1.8	-5.6

Jose Trevino is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Aaron Civale is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Trevino has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Aaron Civale throws a Cutter 32% of the time. Jose Trevino has an A+ grade against right-handed Cutters

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Cutter (R)

32%

Sinker (R)

21%

Curve (R)

20%

4-Seam (R)

11%

Slider (R)

10%

21% of Aaron Civale's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Jose Trevino has a B- grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 21%

+2%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Strong Challenge 5%

Weak Challenge 8%

Meatball 6%

Mid Challenge 10%

-1%

Non-Competitive 10%

-2%

20% of Aaron Civale's pitches are classified as Extreme Drop, which is 15% higher than the MLB average. Jose Trevino has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Drop 20%

+15%

Medium Break 24%

+15%

Extreme Slow Velo 16%

+11%

Fastball (R) 64%

+10%

10.5% of Jose Trevino's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 6.9% lower than the league average. Aaron Civale strikes out 16.1% of the batters he faces, which is 0.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Strikeout -6.9% +0.5% 5%

Walk -1.1% -1.2% 36%

In Play +8.0% +0.7% 39%

On Base 0.0% -1.0% 31%

Hit +1.1% +0.2% 14%

Single +0.7% +0.0% 13%

2B / 3B +1.0% +0.4% 3%

Home Run -0.6% -0.2%

34.4% of Jose Trevino's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 0.0% higher than the league average. Aaron Civale induces Standard Grounders at a 35.4% rate, which is 1.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.4% +0.0% 34%

Standard Grounder +0.0% +1.0% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.0% -2.1% 14%

Low Screamer -0.6% -1.8% 9%

Rising Liner -0.1% +2.2% 4%

Maybe Homer -2.5% -1.5% 3%

Likely Homer +1.5% 0.0% 1%

No Doubter -1.1% -0.6% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.4% +0.8% 3%

Pop up +1.0% +1.9%

24.7% of Jose Trevino's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 0.4% higher than the league average. 21.9% of batted balls allowed by Aaron Civale are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +0.8% +1.0% 21%

75 to 86 mph -3.5% +2.6% 18%

87 to 93 mph +0.9% +0.4% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.4% -1.7% 24%

Above 100 mph +0.4% -2.3%

8.3% of Jose Trevino's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 3.1% lower than the league average. 11.2% of batted balls allowed by Jose Trevino are hit at this angle, which is 0.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +3.9% -0.8% 12%

-10 to 0° -1.4% -0.6% 8%

1 to 6° +0.2% +0.4% 18%

7 to 18° +2.1% -0.3% 15%

19 to 28° -1.7% -0.5% 11%

29 to 38° -3.1% -0.3% 7%

39 to 50° -2.0% -0.1% 8%

Above 50° +1.9% +2.1%

Jose Trevino has 5 plate appearances against Aaron Civale in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 5.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	5	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	0.200
Expected From Contact →			1.20	0.02	0.08	1.10			0.239

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-04-21	Flyout		3%	4%	93%
2024-04-21	Groundout			18%	82%
2024-04-21	Single			80%	20%
2022-04-24	Flyout	2%	4%		95%
2022-04-24	Flyout			8%	91%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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