Matchup Machine

Jose Trevino

matchup for Pablo Lopez

360th out of 436 (Worst 18%)

Pablo Lopez

matchup for Jose Trevino

235th out of 568 (Best 42%)

Moderate advantage for Trevino

Jose Trevino has a 30.7% chance of reaching base vs Pablo Lopez, which is 0.8% higher than Trevino's typical expectations, and 0.2% higher than batters facing Lopez.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	30.7%	25.5%	2.8%	5.1%	17.5%	5.3%	18.6%
Trevino	+0.8	+2.5	+0.2	0.0	+2.3	-1.7	-1.0
Lopez	+0.2	+2.2	+0.1	+0.5	+1.5	-2.0	-7.3

Jose Trevino is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Pablo Lopez is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Trevino has an A grade vs this particular release point.

Pablo Lopez throws a 4-seam fastball 37% of the time. Jose Trevino has a C grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

37%

Changeup (R)

26%

Slider (R)

13%

Curve (R)

10%

Sinker (R)

8% of Pablo Lopez's pitches are classified as Chasers, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Jose Trevino has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Chaser 8%

+2%

Mid Challenge 13%

+1%

Weak Challenge 9%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Edge Painter 17%

+0%

Strong Challenge 5%

Meatball 4%

-2%

Non-Competitive 9%

-4%

26% of Pablo Lopez's pitches are classified as Offspeed Pitches, which is 14% higher than the MLB average. Jose Trevino hasn't faced this type of pitch enough to assign a grade.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Offspeed (R) 26%

+14%

Extreme Break 26%

+11%

Fast Velo 26%

+11%

10.5% of Jose Trevino's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 6.9% lower than the league average. Pablo Lopez strikes out 18.8% of the batters he faces, which is 4.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Strikeout -6.9% +4.4% 5%

Walk -1.1% -2.4% 36%

In Play +8.0% -2.0% 39%

On Base 0.0% -2.3% 31%

Hit +1.1% +0.1% 14%

Single +0.7% 0.0% 13%

2B / 3B +1.0% +0.5% 3%

Home Run -0.6% -0.3%

34.4% of Jose Trevino's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 0.0% higher than the league average. Pablo Lopez induces Standard Grounders at a 37.4% rate, which is 3.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.4% -0.2% 34%

Standard Grounder +0.0% +3.0% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.0% -1.5% 14%

Low Screamer -0.6% +0.8% 9%

Rising Liner -0.1% -0.2% 4%

Maybe Homer -2.5% -0.1% 3%

Likely Homer +1.5% +0.4% 1%

No Doubter -1.1% -0.3% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.4% -1.7% 3%

Pop up +1.0% -0.2%

24.7% of Jose Trevino's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 0.4% higher than the league average. 22.7% of batted balls allowed by Pablo Lopez are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +0.8% -0.2% 21%

75 to 86 mph -3.5% +4.5% 18%

87 to 93 mph +0.9% -0.4% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.4% -2.3% 24%

Above 100 mph +0.4% -1.6%

8.3% of Jose Trevino's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 3.1% lower than the league average. 10.8% of batted balls allowed by Jose Trevino are hit at this angle, which is 0.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +3.9% +1.9% 12%

-10 to 0° -1.4% 0.0% 8%

1 to 6° +0.2% -1.1% 18%

7 to 18° +2.1% 0.0% 15%

19 to 28° -1.7% +1.0% 11%

29 to 38° -3.1% -0.7% 7%

39 to 50° -2.0% -0.3% 8%

Above 50° +1.9% -0.7%

Jose Trevino has 6 plate appearances against Pablo Lopez in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 6.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	6	6	2	0	0	2	0	0	0.333
Expected From Contact →			1.91	0.00	0.23	1.69			0.319

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-05-15	Groundout			16%	84%
2024-05-15	Single			52%	48%
2024-05-15	Flyout		11%	23%	66%
2023-04-16	Groundout			20%	80%
2023-04-16	Single		11%	41%	48%
2023-04-16	Groundout			17%	83%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

On the Way to the Plate

Contact and Outcomes

History