Matchup Machine

Rob Refsnyder

matchup for Josh Fleming

280th out of 436 (Worst 36%)

Josh Fleming

matchup for Rob Refsnyder

66th out of 568 (Best 12%)

Extreme advantage for Refsnyder

Rob Refsnyder has a 36.6% chance of reaching base vs Josh Fleming, which is 4.1% higher than Refsnyder's typical expectations, and 0.9% higher than batters facing Fleming.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	36.6%	24.1%	1.7%	6.5%	15.9%	12.5%	12.8%
Refsnyder	+4.1	+2.4	-1.1	+1.3	+2.1	+1.7	-12.4
Fleming	+0.9	-1.0	-0.3	+0.5	-1.2	+1.9	-1.0

Rob Refsnyder is better vs left-handed pitching. Josh Fleming is left handed with an extreme release toward the first base side. Refsnyder has an A- grade vs this particular release point.

Josh Fleming throws a Sinker 46% of the time. Rob Refsnyder has a B+ grade against left-handed Sinkers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Sinker (L)

46%

Changeup (L)

24%

Cutter (L)

19%

Curve (L)

10% of Josh Fleming's pitches are classified as Chasers, which is 4% higher than the MLB average. Rob Refsnyder hasn't faced this type of pitch very often.

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Chaser 10%

+4%

Weak Challenge 12%

+3%

Fringe Miss 15%

+2%

Likely Ball 21%

+2%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Non-Competitive 10%

-2%

Strong Challenge 2%

-3%

Meatball 3%

-3%

Mid Challenge 8%

-3%

52% of Josh Fleming's pitches are classified as Extreme Break Toward Third Base, which is 37% higher than the MLB average. Rob Refsnyder has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Break 52%

+37%

Medium Drop 33%

+21%

Medium Velo 29%

+14%

Fastball (L) 67%

+12%

Offspeed (L) 24%

+11%

14.4% of Rob Refsnyder's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 0.3% lower than the league average. Josh Fleming strikes out 9.0% of the batters he faces, which is 9.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

14%

Strikeout -0.3% -9.3% 3%

Walk +1.9% -0.6% 40%

In Play -1.6% +9.9% 39%

On Base +3.1% +7.8% 31%

Hit +1.1% +8.4% 14%

Single +0.3% +5.1% 13%

2B / 3B +0.6% +5.2% 3%

Home Run +0.2% -1.9%

39.9% of Rob Refsnyder's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.4% higher than the league average. Josh Fleming induces Standard Grounders at a 48.0% rate, which is 13.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.8% +1.8% 34%

Standard Grounder +5.4% +13.6% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.5% +0.2% 14%

Low Screamer -2.0% -5.5% 9%

Rising Liner +4.2% -2.0% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.8% -0.8% 3%

Likely Homer -2.5% -1.1% 1%

No Doubter -0.2% +0.1% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.4% -5.1% 3%

Pop up -1.3% -1.0%

20.4% of Rob Refsnyder's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.9% lower than the league average. 25.3% of batted balls allowed by Josh Fleming are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -0.7% -0.1% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.5% +1.3% 18%

87 to 93 mph +1.2% -2.8% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.8% +0.6% 24%

Above 100 mph -3.9% +1.0%

9.8% of Rob Refsnyder's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.7% lower than the league average. 5.9% of batted balls allowed by Rob Refsnyder are hit at this angle, which is 5.5% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.0% +15.4% 12%

-10 to 0° +2.5% +1.6% 8%

1 to 6° -2.6% -1.2% 18%

7 to 18° +8.2% -2.7% 15%

19 to 28° -2.4% -1.4% 11%

29 to 38° -1.7% -5.5% 7%

39 to 50° +1.3% -3.3% 8%

Above 50° -3.4% -2.9%

Rob Refsnyder has 4 plate appearances against Josh Fleming in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 4.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0.250
Expected From Contact →			1.10	0.02	0.23	0.85			0.275

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-04-10	Groundout		2%	38%	60%
2022-07-11	Single			40%	59%
2022-07-11	Forceout			6%	94%
2022-07-04	Lineout	2%	21%		77%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

On the Way to the Plate

Contact and Outcomes

History