Matchup Machine

Rob Refsnyder

matchup for M. Liberatore

274th out of 436 (Worst 37%)

Matthew Liberatore

matchup for Rob Refsnyder

357th out of 568 (Worst 37%)

Leans in favor of Refsnyder

Rob Refsnyder has a 31.3% chance of reaching base vs Matthew Liberatore, which is 1.2% lower than Refsnyder's typical expectations, and 0.9% higher than batters facing Liberatore.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	31.3%	22.7%	2.6%	5.2%	14.9%	8.6%	24.5%
Refsnyder	-1.2	+1.0	-0.2	+0.1	+1.1	-2.2	-0.8
Liberatore	+0.9	-0.3	-0.1	+0.0	-0.3	+1.2	-0.5

Rob Refsnyder is better vs left-handed pitching. Matthew Liberatore is left handed with an over-the-top delivery. Refsnyder has an A grade vs this particular release point.

Matthew Liberatore throws a 4-seam fastball 34% of the time. Rob Refsnyder has an A grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

34%

Slider (L)

19%

Sinker (L)

19%

Curve (L)

15%

Changeup (L)

11% of Matthew Liberatore's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Rob Refsnyder has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 11%

+2%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Non-Competitive 12%

Fringe Miss 12%

Chaser 5%

-1%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Likely Ball 19%

-1%

Meatball 3%

-2%

23% of Matthew Liberatore's pitches are classified as Fast Velocity, which is 13% higher than the MLB average. Rob Refsnyder has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Fast Velo 23%

+13%

Extreme Drop 16%

+11%

Medium Break 28%

+9%

14.4% of Rob Refsnyder's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 0.3% lower than the league average. Matthew Liberatore strikes out 13.9% of the batters he faces, which is 2.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

14%

Strikeout -0.3% -2.6% 3%

Walk +1.9% -0.6% 40%

In Play -1.6% +3.2% 39%

On Base +3.1% +2.0% 31%

Hit +1.1% +2.5% 14%

Single +0.3% +1.0% 13%

2B / 3B +0.6% +1.5% 3%

Home Run +0.2% +0.1%

39.9% of Rob Refsnyder's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.4% higher than the league average. Matthew Liberatore induces Standard Grounders at a 35.6% rate, which is 1.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.8% 0.0% 34%

Standard Grounder +5.4% +1.2% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.5% +0.2% 14%

Low Screamer -2.0% -0.7% 9%

Rising Liner +4.2% -1.7% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.8% -0.3% 3%

Likely Homer -2.5% +0.7% 1%

No Doubter -0.2% -0.1% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.4% -0.2% 3%

Pop up -1.3% +0.9%

20.4% of Rob Refsnyder's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.9% lower than the league average. 23.3% of batted balls allowed by Matthew Liberatore are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -0.7% -0.4% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.5% 0.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph +1.2% +0.7% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.8% +0.7% 24%

Above 100 mph -3.9% -1.0%

9.8% of Rob Refsnyder's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.7% lower than the league average. 9.7% of batted balls allowed by Rob Refsnyder are hit at this angle, which is 1.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.0% +1.9% 12%

-10 to 0° +2.5% -0.4% 8%

1 to 6° -2.6% +1.4% 18%

7 to 18° +8.2% -5.7% 15%

19 to 28° -2.4% +1.4% 11%

29 to 38° -1.7% -1.7% 7%

39 to 50° +1.3% +0.6% 8%

Above 50° -3.4% +2.4%

Rob Refsnyder has 2 plate appearances against Matthew Liberatore in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 2 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	2	2	1	0	0	1	1	0	0.500
Expected From Contact →			0.44	0.00	0.01	0.42			0.218

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-05-19	Strikeout
2024-05-19	Single		1%	42%	56%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

On the Way to the Plate

Contact and Outcomes

History