Matchup Machine

Rob Refsnyder

matchup for Tim Hill

198th out of 436 (Best 46%)

Tim Hill

matchup for Rob Refsnyder

399th out of 568 (Worst 30%)

Leans in favor of Refsnyder

Rob Refsnyder has a 30.4% chance of reaching base vs Tim Hill, which is 2.1% lower than Refsnyder's typical expectations, and 0.5% lower than batters facing Hill.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	30.4%	23.8%	1.5%	2.8%	19.5%	6.7%	11.6%
Refsnyder	-2.1	+2.1	-1.3	-2.4	+5.7	-4.1	-13.6
Hill	-0.5	-1.5	-0.1	+0.1	-1.5	+1.0	-0.3

Rob Refsnyder is better vs left-handed pitching. Tim Hill is left handed with an extreme release toward the first base side. Refsnyder has an A- grade vs this particular release point.

Tim Hill throws a Sinker 50% of the time. Rob Refsnyder has a B+ grade against left-handed Sinkers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Sinker (L)

50%

4-Seam (L)

36%

Slider (L)

13%

14% of Tim Hill's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 5% higher than the MLB average. Rob Refsnyder has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 14%

+5%

Mid Challenge 13%

+2%

Strong Challenge 7%

+2%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Chaser 5%

-1%

Likely Ball 17%

-2%

Non-Competitive 9%

-3%

Meatball 1%

-5%

74% of Tim Hill's pitches are classified as Extreme Break Toward Third Base, which is 59% higher than the MLB average. Rob Refsnyder has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Break 74%

+59%

Fastball (L) 87%

+32%

Large Drop 33%

+28%

Medium Velo 38%

+24%

14.4% of Rob Refsnyder's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 0.3% lower than the league average. Tim Hill strikes out 10.5% of the batters he faces, which is 8.5% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

14%

Strikeout -0.3% -8.5% 3%

Walk +1.9% -1.1% 40%

In Play -1.6% +9.6% 39%

On Base +3.1% +6.3% 31%

Hit +1.1% +7.4% 14%

Single +0.3% +4.8% 13%

2B / 3B +0.6% +4.7% 3%

Home Run +0.2% -2.0%

39.9% of Rob Refsnyder's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.4% higher than the league average. Tim Hill induces Standard Grounders at a 52.5% rate, which is 18.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.8% +0.8% 34%

Standard Grounder +5.4% +18.1% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.5% +2.5% 14%

Low Screamer -2.0% -6.0% 9%

Rising Liner +4.2% -1.2% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.8% -2.0% 3%

Likely Homer -2.5% -2.4% 1%

No Doubter -0.2% -0.4% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.4% -8.4% 3%

Pop up -1.3% -1.0%

20.4% of Rob Refsnyder's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.9% lower than the league average. 24.3% of batted balls allowed by Tim Hill are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -0.7% +1.2% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.5% +0.2% 18%

87 to 93 mph +1.2% -1.5% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.8% +0.1% 24%

Above 100 mph -3.9% +0.0%

9.8% of Rob Refsnyder's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.7% lower than the league average. 5.5% of batted balls allowed by Rob Refsnyder are hit at this angle, which is 5.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.0% +19.6% 12%

-10 to 0° +2.5% +0.3% 8%

1 to 6° -2.6% +1.6% 18%

7 to 18° +8.2% -1.9% 15%

19 to 28° -2.4% -7.5% 11%

29 to 38° -1.7% -5.9% 7%

39 to 50° +1.3% -3.2% 8%

Above 50° -3.4% -3.1%

Rob Refsnyder has 2 plate appearances against Tim Hill in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 2.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.04	0.00	0.01	0.03			0.018

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-07-06	Flyout			3%	97%
2024-06-06	Flyout				100%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

On the Way to the Plate

Contact and Outcomes

History