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Rob Refsnyder

matchup for Aaron Civale

232nd out of 436 (Worst 47%)

Aaron Civale

matchup for Rob Refsnyder

431st out of 568 (Worst 24%)

Leans in favor of Civale

Rob Refsnyder has a 28.8% chance of reaching base vs Aaron Civale, which is 3.7% lower than Refsnyder's typical expectations, and 0.3% higher than batters facing Civale.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	28.8%	20.4%	2.9%	4.9%	12.6%	8.4%	24.0%
Refsnyder	-3.7	-1.3	+0.1	-0.2	-1.2	-2.4	-1.2
Civale	-0.3	-0.7	+0.0	0.0	-0.8	+0.4	+1.1

Rob Refsnyder is worse vs right-handed pitching. Aaron Civale is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Refsnyder has an A grade vs this particular release point.

Aaron Civale throws a Cutter 32% of the time. Rob Refsnyder hasn't faced this pitch from right handers very often

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Cutter (R)

32%

Sinker (R)

21%

Curve (R)

20%

4-Seam (R)

11%

Slider (R)

10%

21% of Aaron Civale's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Rob Refsnyder has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 21%

+2%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Strong Challenge 5%

Weak Challenge 8%

Meatball 6%

Mid Challenge 10%

-1%

Non-Competitive 10%

-2%

20% of Aaron Civale's pitches are classified as Extreme Drop, which is 15% higher than the MLB average. Rob Refsnyder has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Drop 20%

+15%

Medium Break 24%

+15%

Extreme Slow Velo 16%

+11%

Fastball (R) 64%

+10%

14.4% of Rob Refsnyder's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 0.3% lower than the league average. Aaron Civale strikes out 16.1% of the batters he faces, which is 0.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

14%

Strikeout -0.3% +0.5% 3%

Walk +1.9% -1.2% 40%

In Play -1.6% +0.7% 39%

On Base +3.1% -1.0% 31%

Hit +1.1% +0.2% 14%

Single +0.3% +0.0% 13%

2B / 3B +0.6% +0.4% 3%

Home Run +0.2% -0.2%

39.9% of Rob Refsnyder's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.4% higher than the league average. Aaron Civale induces Standard Grounders at a 35.4% rate, which is 1.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.8% +0.0% 34%

Standard Grounder +5.4% +1.0% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.5% -2.1% 14%

Low Screamer -2.0% -1.8% 9%

Rising Liner +4.2% +2.2% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.8% -1.5% 3%

Likely Homer -2.5% 0.0% 1%

No Doubter -0.2% -0.6% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.4% +0.8% 3%

Pop up -1.3% +1.9%

20.4% of Rob Refsnyder's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.9% lower than the league average. 21.9% of batted balls allowed by Aaron Civale are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -0.7% +1.0% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.5% +2.6% 18%

87 to 93 mph +1.2% +0.4% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.8% -1.7% 24%

Above 100 mph -3.9% -2.3%

9.8% of Rob Refsnyder's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.7% lower than the league average. 11.2% of batted balls allowed by Rob Refsnyder are hit at this angle, which is 0.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.0% -0.8% 12%

-10 to 0° +2.5% -0.6% 8%

1 to 6° -2.6% +0.4% 18%

7 to 18° +8.2% -0.3% 15%

19 to 28° -2.4% -0.5% 11%

29 to 38° -1.7% -0.3% 7%

39 to 50° +1.3% -0.1% 8%

Above 50° -3.4% +2.1%

Rob Refsnyder has 2 plate appearances against Aaron Civale in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 1 with a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.65	0.00	0.02	0.63			0.650

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-06-08	Walk
2023-06-08	Flyout		2%	63%	35%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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