Matchup Machine

Rob Refsnyder

matchup for Lucas Sims

297th out of 436 (Worst 32%)

Lucas Sims

matchup for Rob Refsnyder

154th out of 568 (Best 28%)

Strong advantage for Refsnyder

Rob Refsnyder has a 36.3% chance of reaching base vs Lucas Sims, which is 3.8% higher than Refsnyder's typical expectations, and 1.6% higher than batters facing Sims.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	36.3%	19.8%	3.3%	4.9%	11.6%	16.6%	25.6%
Refsnyder	+3.8	-1.9	+0.5	-0.2	-2.2	+5.8	+0.4
Sims	+1.6	-0.5	+0.0	+0.1	-0.7	+2.1	+1.6

Rob Refsnyder is worse vs right-handed pitching. Lucas Sims is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Refsnyder has a C grade vs this particular release point.

Lucas Sims throws a 4-seam fastball 39% of the time. Rob Refsnyder has an A- grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

39%

Slider (R)

32%

Curve (R)

17%

21% of Lucas Sims's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Rob Refsnyder has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 21%

+2%

Strong Challenge 7%

+2%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Meatball 7%

+0%

Non-Competitive 13%

+0%

Fringe Miss 12%

Edge Painter 16%

-1%

Weak Challenge 4%

-4%

50% of Lucas Sims's pitches are classified as Breaking Pitches, which is 19% higher than the MLB average. Rob Refsnyder has a D+ grade against this type of pitch from right handers.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Breaking (R) 50%

+19%

Large Break 20%

+15%

Very Slow Velo 25%

+11%

14.4% of Rob Refsnyder's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 0.3% lower than the league average. Lucas Sims strikes out 19.9% of the batters he faces, which is 5.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

14%

Strikeout -0.3% +5.9% 3%

Walk +1.9% +3.3% 40%

In Play -1.6% -9.2% 39%

On Base +3.1% -5.7% 31%

Hit +1.1% -9.0% 14%

Single +0.3% -4.1% 13%

2B / 3B +0.6% -3.9% 3%

Home Run +0.2% -0.9%

39.9% of Rob Refsnyder's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.4% higher than the league average. Lucas Sims induces Standard Grounders at a 19.3% rate, which is 15.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.8% +0.8% 34%

Standard Grounder +5.4% -15.1% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.5% -0.9% 14%

Low Screamer -2.0% +6.8% 9%

Rising Liner +4.2% -2.2% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.8% +0.5% 3%

Likely Homer -2.5% +1.3% 1%

No Doubter -0.2% +0.5% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.4% +3.6% 3%

Pop up -1.3% +4.8%

20.4% of Rob Refsnyder's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.9% lower than the league average. 18.1% of batted balls allowed by Lucas Sims are hit at above 100 mph, which is 6.2% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -0.7% +5.5% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.5% +0.4% 18%

87 to 93 mph +1.2% +1.8% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.8% -1.5% 24%

Above 100 mph -3.9% -6.2%

9.8% of Rob Refsnyder's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.7% lower than the league average. 14.5% of batted balls allowed by Rob Refsnyder are hit at this angle, which is 3.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.0% -5.8% 12%

-10 to 0° +2.5% -6.2% 8%

1 to 6° -2.6% -0.8% 18%

7 to 18° +8.2% -3.8% 15%

19 to 28° -2.4% +0.6% 11%

29 to 38° -1.7% +3.1% 7%

39 to 50° +1.3% +3.5% 8%

Above 50° -3.4% +9.4%

Rob Refsnyder has 1 plate appearance against Lucas Sims in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 1.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00			0.007

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-05-31	Flyout				99%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

On the Way to the Plate

Contact and Outcomes

History