Matchup Machine

Rob Refsnyder

matchup for Carlos Estevez

290th out of 436 (Worst 34%)

Carlos Estevez

matchup for Rob Refsnyder

405th out of 568 (Worst 29%)

Leans in favor of Estevez

Rob Refsnyder has a 27.9% chance of reaching base vs Carlos Estevez, which is 4.6% lower than Refsnyder's typical expectations, and 0.2% higher than batters facing Estevez.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	27.9%	21.3%	3.8%	5.7%	11.8%	6.6%	26.3%
Refsnyder	-4.6	-0.4	+1.0	+0.6	-2.0	-4.2	+1.0
Estevez	+0.2	-0.4	+0.6	+0.5	-1.5	+0.6	+1.0

Rob Refsnyder is worse vs right-handed pitching. Carlos Estevez is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Refsnyder has a D+ grade vs this particular release point.

Carlos Estevez throws a 4-seam fastball 67% of the time. Rob Refsnyder has an A- grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

67%

Slider (R)

22%

Changeup (R)

10%

16% of Carlos Estevez's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 5% higher than the MLB average. Rob Refsnyder has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 16%

+5%

Edge Painter 19%

+2%

Strong Challenge 7%

+2%

Non-Competitive 13%

+0%

Weak Challenge 8%

Fringe Miss 12%

Chaser 4%

-2%

Meatball 3%

-3%

Likely Ball 16%

-3%

36% of Carlos Estevez's pitches are classified as Very Fast Velocity, which is 28% higher than the MLB average. Rob Refsnyder has a C+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Very Fast Velo 36%

+28%

Medium Break 44%

+25%

Fastball (R) 67%

+13%

Medium Ride 25%

+11%

14.4% of Rob Refsnyder's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 0.3% lower than the league average. Carlos Estevez strikes out 16.6% of the batters he faces, which is 1.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

14%

Strikeout -0.3% +1.3% 3%

Walk +1.9% -0.1% 40%

In Play -1.6% -1.2% 39%

On Base +3.1% -1.2% 31%

Hit +1.1% -1.2% 14%

Single +0.3% -1.0% 13%

2B / 3B +0.6% -0.6% 3%

Home Run +0.2% +0.4%

39.9% of Rob Refsnyder's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.4% higher than the league average. Carlos Estevez induces Standard Grounders at a 27.5% rate, which is 6.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.8% -0.6% 34%

Standard Grounder +5.4% -6.9% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.5% +1.3% 14%

Low Screamer -2.0% +1.1% 9%

Rising Liner +4.2% -1.0% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.8% +1.0% 3%

Likely Homer -2.5% +0.9% 1%

No Doubter -0.2% -0.6% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.4% +2.0% 3%

Pop up -1.3% +2.7%

20.4% of Rob Refsnyder's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.9% lower than the league average. 25.9% of batted balls allowed by Carlos Estevez are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -0.7% -2.5% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.5% -2.3% 18%

87 to 93 mph +1.2% -0.2% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.8% +3.4% 24%

Above 100 mph -3.9% +1.6%

9.8% of Rob Refsnyder's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.7% lower than the league average. 12.7% of batted balls allowed by Rob Refsnyder are hit at this angle, which is 1.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.0% -3.2% 12%

-10 to 0° +2.5% -0.6% 8%

1 to 6° -2.6% -0.6% 18%

7 to 18° +8.2% -1.8% 15%

19 to 28° -2.4% +0.8% 11%

29 to 38° -1.7% +1.2% 7%

39 to 50° +1.3% -1.2% 8%

Above 50° -3.4% +5.3%

Rob Refsnyder has 2 plate appearances against Carlos Estevez in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 2 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00			0.001

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-04-17	Strikeout
2023-04-15	Flyout				100%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

On the Way to the Plate

Contact and Outcomes

History