Matchup Machine

Rob Refsnyder

matchup for S. Turnbull

228th out of 436 (Worst 48%)

Spencer Turnbull

matchup for Rob Refsnyder

347th out of 568 (Worst 39%)

Leans in favor of Refsnyder

Rob Refsnyder has a 32.8% chance of reaching base vs Spencer Turnbull, which is 0.3% higher than Refsnyder's typical expectations, and 0.0% higher than batters facing Turnbull.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	32.8%	19.3%	2.6%	4.5%	12.2%	13.5%	25.6%
Refsnyder	+0.3	-2.5	-0.2	-0.7	-1.6	+2.7	+0.4
Turnbull	+0.0	-1.9	+0.0	-0.2	-1.7	+1.9	+0.0

Rob Refsnyder is worse vs right-handed pitching. Spencer Turnbull is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Refsnyder has a D+ grade vs this particular release point.

Spencer Turnbull throws a 4-seam fastball 41% of the time. Rob Refsnyder has an A- grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

41%

Slider (R)

23%

Sinker (R)

20%

Curve (R)

10%

Changeup (R)

12% of Spencer Turnbull's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Rob Refsnyder has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 12%

+3%

Likely Ball 22%

+2%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Chaser 6%

+0%

Fringe Miss 12%

-1%

Non-Competitive 12%

-1%

Mid Challenge 10%

-1%

Strong Challenge 3%

-2%

Meatball 4%

-2%

38% of Spencer Turnbull's pitches are classified as Low Ride, which is 15% higher than the MLB average. Rob Refsnyder has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Low Ride 38%

+15%

Medium Fast Velo 27%

+12%

Small Break 19%

+10%

14.4% of Rob Refsnyder's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 0.3% lower than the league average. Spencer Turnbull strikes out 14.6% of the batters he faces, which is 0.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

14%

Strikeout -0.3% +0.4% 3%

Walk +1.9% -0.1% 40%

In Play -1.6% -0.4% 39%

On Base +3.1% +0.9% 31%

Hit +1.1% +0.9% 14%

Single +0.3% +0.5% 13%

2B / 3B +0.6% +0.8% 3%

Home Run +0.2% -0.4%

39.9% of Rob Refsnyder's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.4% higher than the league average. Spencer Turnbull induces Standard Grounders at a 42.2% rate, which is 7.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.8% +0.0% 34%

Standard Grounder +5.4% +7.8% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.5% -1.9% 14%

Low Screamer -2.0% +0.9% 9%

Rising Liner +4.2% +0.3% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.8% -1.9% 3%

Likely Homer -2.5% +0.7% 1%

No Doubter -0.2% -0.5% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.4% -4.3% 3%

Pop up -1.3% -1.0%

20.4% of Rob Refsnyder's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.9% lower than the league average. 20.4% of batted balls allowed by Spencer Turnbull are hit at above 100 mph, which is 3.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -0.7% +2.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.5% +0.5% 18%

87 to 93 mph +1.2% -2.6% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.8% +3.8% 24%

Above 100 mph -3.9% -3.9%

9.8% of Rob Refsnyder's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.7% lower than the league average. 11.7% of batted balls allowed by Rob Refsnyder are hit at this angle, which is 0.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.0% +3.4% 12%

-10 to 0° +2.5% +1.5% 8%

1 to 6° -2.6% -0.2% 18%

7 to 18° +8.2% -0.6% 15%

19 to 28° -2.4% -1.0% 11%

29 to 38° -1.7% +0.2% 7%

39 to 50° +1.3% -2.3% 8%

Above 50° -3.4% -0.9%

Rob Refsnyder has 1 plate appearance against Spencer Turnbull in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 1.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00			0.000

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-06-12	Double Play

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

On the Way to the Plate

Contact and Outcomes

History