Matchup Machine

Rob Refsnyder

matchup for Blake Snell

97th out of 436 (Best 23%)

Blake Snell

matchup for Rob Refsnyder

567th out of 568 (Worst 0%)

Extreme advantage for Snell

Rob Refsnyder has a 22.6% chance of reaching base vs Blake Snell, which is 9.9% lower than Refsnyder's typical expectations, and 2.8% lower than batters facing Snell.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	22.6%	12.8%	1.9%	2.7%	8.2%	9.8%	45.0%
Refsnyder	-9.9	-9.0	-0.9	-2.5	-5.6	-1.0	+19.8
Snell	-2.8	-2.0	-0.1	-0.2	-1.7	-0.8	+6.3

Rob Refsnyder is better vs left-handed pitching. Blake Snell is left handed with a moderate release toward the first base side. Refsnyder has an A grade vs this particular release point.

Blake Snell throws a 4-seam fastball 51% of the time. Rob Refsnyder has an A grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

51%

Curve (L)

18%

Slider (L)

18%

Changeup (L)

13%

25% of Blake Snell's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 5% higher than the MLB average. Rob Refsnyder has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 25%

+5%

Strong Challenge 7%

+2%

Chaser 8%

+2%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Mid Challenge 11%

+0%

Edge Painter 16%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Weak Challenge 5%

-3%

Meatball 2%

-4%

22% of Blake Snell's pitches are classified as Extreme Ride, which is 18% higher than the MLB average. Rob Refsnyder has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Ride 22%

+18%

Medium Break 36%

+17%

Fast Velo 27%

+17%

14.4% of Rob Refsnyder's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 0.3% lower than the league average. Blake Snell strikes out 22.7% of the batters he faces, which is 11.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

14%

Strikeout -0.3% +11.5% 3%

Walk +1.9% +1.7% 40%

In Play -1.6% -13.2% 39%

On Base +3.1% -5.4% 31%

Hit +1.1% -7.1% 14%

Single +0.3% -3.0% 13%

2B / 3B +0.6% -2.8% 3%

Home Run +0.2% -1.2%

39.9% of Rob Refsnyder's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.4% higher than the league average. Blake Snell induces Standard Grounders at a 36.5% rate, which is 2.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.8% +0.0% 34%

Standard Grounder +5.4% +2.1% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.5% -1.9% 14%

Low Screamer -2.0% +2.7% 9%

Rising Liner +4.2% -0.9% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.8% -0.9% 3%

Likely Homer -2.5% -0.9% 1%

No Doubter -0.2% +0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.4% +0.3% 3%

Pop up -1.3% -0.8%

20.4% of Rob Refsnyder's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.9% lower than the league average. 21.4% of batted balls allowed by Blake Snell are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -0.7% +2.8% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.5% +3.3% 18%

87 to 93 mph +1.2% -0.8% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.8% -2.3% 24%

Above 100 mph -3.9% -2.9%

9.8% of Rob Refsnyder's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.7% lower than the league average. 12.7% of batted balls allowed by Rob Refsnyder are hit at this angle, which is 1.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.0% +2.0% 12%

-10 to 0° +2.5% -0.1% 8%

1 to 6° -2.6% -2.2% 18%

7 to 18° +8.2% -2.3% 15%

19 to 28° -2.4% +1.2% 11%

29 to 38° -1.7% +1.3% 7%

39 to 50° +1.3% +0.1% 8%

Above 50° -3.4% 0.0%

Rob Refsnyder has 2 plate appearances against Blake Snell in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 2 with a double and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	2	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.500
Expected From Contact →			0.87	0.04	0.77	0.06			0.437

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-05-19	Groundout			5%	95%
2023-05-19	Double	4%	77%		18%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

On the Way to the Plate

Contact and Outcomes

History