Matchup Machine

Rob Refsnyder

matchup for Matthew Boyd

173rd out of 436 (Best 40%)

Matthew Boyd

matchup for Rob Refsnyder

521st out of 568 (Worst 8%)

Strong advantage for Boyd

Rob Refsnyder has a 27.4% chance of reaching base vs Matthew Boyd, which is 5.1% lower than Refsnyder's typical expectations, and 1.1% lower than batters facing Boyd.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	27.4%	18.5%	2.1%	5.3%	11.0%	9.0%	31.9%
Refsnyder	-5.1	-3.3	-0.7	+0.2	-2.8	-1.8	+6.6
Boyd	-1.1	-1.0	-0.1	+0.4	-1.3	-0.1	+3.0

Rob Refsnyder is better vs left-handed pitching. Matthew Boyd is left handed with a horizontal release toward the first base side. Refsnyder has a C grade vs this particular release point.

Matthew Boyd throws a 4-seam fastball 42% of the time. Rob Refsnyder has an A grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

42%

Slider (L)

29%

Changeup (L)

13%

Curve (L)

7% of Matthew Boyd's pitches are classified as Meatballs, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Rob Refsnyder has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Meatball 7%

+2%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Chaser 6%

+0%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Mid Challenge 11%

+0%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Weak Challenge 7%

-1%

Non-Competitive 10%

-2%

38% of Matthew Boyd's pitches are classified as Large Break Toward Third Base, which is 17% higher than the MLB average. Rob Refsnyder has an A- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Large Break 38%

+17%

Extreme Slow Velo 22%

+14%

14.4% of Rob Refsnyder's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 0.3% lower than the league average. Matthew Boyd strikes out 18.6% of the batters he faces, which is 3.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

14%

Strikeout -0.3% +3.5% 3%

Walk +1.9% +0.4% 40%

In Play -1.6% -3.9% 39%

On Base +3.1% -5.2% 31%

Hit +1.1% -5.6% 14%

Single +0.3% -2.8% 13%

2B / 3B +0.6% -2.7% 3%

Home Run +0.2% 0.0%

39.9% of Rob Refsnyder's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.4% higher than the league average. Matthew Boyd induces Standard Grounders at a 32.9% rate, which is 1.5% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.8% 0.0% 34%

Standard Grounder +5.4% -1.5% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.5% +0.1% 14%

Low Screamer -2.0% -0.9% 9%

Rising Liner +4.2% -0.2% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.8% +0.1% 3%

Likely Homer -2.5% +0.3% 1%

No Doubter -0.2% -0.5% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.4% +2.1% 3%

Pop up -1.3% +0.4%

20.4% of Rob Refsnyder's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.9% lower than the league average. 21.8% of batted balls allowed by Matthew Boyd are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.5% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -0.7% 0.0% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.5% +1.3% 18%

87 to 93 mph +1.2% +0.7% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.8% +0.6% 24%

Above 100 mph -3.9% -2.5%

9.8% of Rob Refsnyder's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.7% lower than the league average. 10.7% of batted balls allowed by Rob Refsnyder are hit at this angle, which is 0.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.0% -4.4% 12%

-10 to 0° +2.5% +0.9% 8%

1 to 6° -2.6% +0.8% 18%

7 to 18° +8.2% -0.8% 15%

19 to 28° -2.4% 0.0% 11%

29 to 38° -1.7% -0.7% 7%

39 to 50° +1.3% +1.7% 8%

Above 50° -3.4% +2.6%

Rob Refsnyder has 3 plate appearances against Matthew Boyd in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 2 with a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	2	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.500
Expected From Contact →			0.58	0.00	0.47	0.10			0.288

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-04-09	Single			6%	94%
2023-04-09	Walk
2023-04-09	Lineout		47%	4%	49%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

On the Way to the Plate

Contact and Outcomes

History