Matchup Machine

Rob Refsnyder

matchup for Jordan Lyles

370th out of 436 (Worst 15%)

Jordan Lyles

matchup for Rob Refsnyder

out of 568 (Worst %)

Extreme advantage for Refsnyder

Rob Refsnyder has a 36.2% chance of reaching base vs Jordan Lyles, which is 3.7% higher than Refsnyder's typical expectations, and 2.6% higher than batters facing Lyles.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	36.2%	24.8%	3.5%	6.2%	15.1%	11.4%	19.1%
Refsnyder	+3.7	+3.1	+0.7	+1.1	+1.3	+0.6	-6.2
Lyles	+2.6	+0.6	+0.2	+0.4	+0.0	+2.0	+0.9

Rob Refsnyder is worse vs right-handed pitching. Jordan Lyles is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Refsnyder has a D grade vs this particular release point.

Jordan Lyles throws a 4-seam fastball 35% of the time. Rob Refsnyder has an A- grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

35%

Slider (R)

23%

Curve (R)

17%

Sinker (R)

12%

Changeup (R)

10%

9% of Jordan Lyles's pitches are classified as Meatballs, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Rob Refsnyder has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Meatball 9%

+3%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Chaser 6%

+0%

Edge Painter 17%

+0%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Non-Competitive 12%

-1%

Mid Challenge 10%

-1%

Weak Challenge 7%

-1%

16% of Jordan Lyles's pitches are classified as Extreme Drop, which is 12% higher than the MLB average. Rob Refsnyder has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Drop 16%

+12%

Medium Velo 21%

+10%

Medium Break 28%

+9%

Breaking (R) 40%

+9%

14.4% of Rob Refsnyder's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 0.3% lower than the league average. Jordan Lyles strikes out 15.6% of the batters he faces, which is 0.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

14%

Strikeout -0.3% +0.8% 3%

Walk +1.9% -2.3% 40%

In Play -1.6% +1.6% 39%

On Base +3.1% -4.1% 31%

Hit +1.1% -1.7% 14%

Single +0.3% -1.0% 13%

2B / 3B +0.6% -0.7% 3%

Home Run +0.2% -0.1%

39.9% of Rob Refsnyder's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.4% higher than the league average. Jordan Lyles induces Standard Grounders at a 26.4% rate, which is 8.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.8% +0.5% 34%

Standard Grounder +5.4% -8.0% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.5% +1.4% 14%

Low Screamer -2.0% -0.1% 9%

Rising Liner +4.2% -1.2% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.8% -0.3% 3%

Likely Homer -2.5% +2.6% 1%

No Doubter -0.2% +0.4% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.4% +1.7% 3%

Pop up -1.3% +3.0%

20.4% of Rob Refsnyder's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.9% lower than the league average. 24.9% of batted balls allowed by Jordan Lyles are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -0.7% -2.7% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.5% +1.1% 18%

87 to 93 mph +1.2% 0.0% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.8% +0.9% 24%

Above 100 mph -3.9% +0.7%

9.8% of Rob Refsnyder's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.7% lower than the league average. 11.3% of batted balls allowed by Rob Refsnyder are hit at this angle, which is 0.2% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.0% -4.1% 12%

-10 to 0° +2.5% -1.7% 8%

1 to 6° -2.6% 0.0% 18%

7 to 18° +8.2% -2.3% 15%

19 to 28° -2.4% +1.4% 11%

29 to 38° -1.7% -0.2% 7%

39 to 50° +1.3% +0.4% 8%

Above 50° -3.4% +6.5%

Rob Refsnyder has 3 plate appearances against Jordan Lyles in the last 3 years. He is 3 for 3 with a double and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	3	0	1	2	0	0	1.000
Expected From Contact →			1.68	0.18	0.80	0.71			0.561

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2022-09-26	Single		6%	54%	40%
2022-08-19	Single	7%	66%	17%	10%
2022-08-19	Double	10%	8%		82%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

On the Way to the Plate

Contact and Outcomes

History