Matchup Machine

Rob Refsnyder

matchup for Nathan Eovaldi

332nd out of 436 (Worst 24%)

Nathan Eovaldi

matchup for Rob Refsnyder

318th out of 568 (Worst 44%)

Moderate advantage for Refsnyder

Rob Refsnyder has a 30.7% chance of reaching base vs Nathan Eovaldi, which is 1.8% lower than Refsnyder's typical expectations, and 1.3% higher than batters facing Eovaldi.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	30.7%	22.2%	3.9%	5.3%	13.0%	8.6%	26.1%
Refsnyder	-1.8	+0.4	+1.1	+0.1	-0.8	-2.2	+0.9
Eovaldi	+1.3	-0.1	+0.7	-0.1	-0.7	+1.4	+0.1

Rob Refsnyder is worse vs right-handed pitching. Nathan Eovaldi is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Refsnyder has a D grade vs this particular release point.

Nathan Eovaldi throws a 4-seam fastball 38% of the time. Rob Refsnyder has an A- grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

38%

Splitter (R)

23%

Curve (R)

16%

Cutter (R)

14%

Slider (R)

10% of Nathan Eovaldi's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Rob Refsnyder has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 10%

+2%

Mid Challenge 13%

+2%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Chaser 6%

+0%

Strong Challenge 5%

Likely Ball 19%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Non-Competitive 10%

-3%

44% of Nathan Eovaldi's pitches are classified as Large Break Toward Third Base, which is 23% higher than the MLB average. Rob Refsnyder has a D- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Large Break 44%

+23%

Low Ride 36%

+12%

Offspeed (R) 23%

+12%

14.4% of Rob Refsnyder's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 0.3% lower than the league average. Nathan Eovaldi strikes out 16.6% of the batters he faces, which is 1.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

14%

Strikeout -0.3% +1.3% 3%

Walk +1.9% -2.2% 40%

In Play -1.6% +0.9% 39%

On Base +3.1% -2.0% 31%

Hit +1.1% +0.2% 14%

Single +0.3% +0.0% 13%

2B / 3B +0.6% +0.3% 3%

Home Run +0.2% -0.1%

39.9% of Rob Refsnyder's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.4% higher than the league average. Nathan Eovaldi induces Standard Grounders at a 38.4% rate, which is 4.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.8% -0.2% 34%

Standard Grounder +5.4% +4.0% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.5% +0.9% 14%

Low Screamer -2.0% -0.7% 9%

Rising Liner +4.2% -0.5% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.8% +0.6% 3%

Likely Homer -2.5% -1.1% 1%

No Doubter -0.2% -0.3% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.4% -2.8% 3%

Pop up -1.3% +0.2%

20.4% of Rob Refsnyder's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.9% lower than the league average. 27.0% of batted balls allowed by Nathan Eovaldi are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -0.7% -1.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.5% -0.7% 18%

87 to 93 mph +1.2% +0.8% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.8% -1.5% 24%

Above 100 mph -3.9% +2.7%

9.8% of Rob Refsnyder's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.7% lower than the league average. 10.2% of batted balls allowed by Rob Refsnyder are hit at this angle, which is 1.2% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.0% +3.3% 12%

-10 to 0° +2.5% +0.7% 8%

1 to 6° -2.6% +0.8% 18%

7 to 18° +8.2% +0.3% 15%

19 to 28° -2.4% -0.2% 11%

29 to 38° -1.7% -1.2% 7%

39 to 50° +1.3% -2.5% 8%

Above 50° -3.4% -1.2%

Rob Refsnyder has 3 plate appearances against Nathan Eovaldi in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 3 with 2 strikeouts.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.05	0.00	0.00	0.05			0.016

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-08-04	Strikeout
2024-08-04	Strikeout
2024-08-04	Groundout			5%	95%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

On the Way to the Plate

Contact and Outcomes

History