Matchup Machine

Rob Refsnyder

matchup for J. Verlander

414th out of 436 (Worst 5%)

Justin Verlander

matchup for Rob Refsnyder

50th out of 568 (Best 10%)

Extreme advantage for Refsnyder

Rob Refsnyder has a 36.5% chance of reaching base vs Justin Verlander, which is 4.0% higher than Refsnyder's typical expectations, and 4.0% higher than batters facing Verlander.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	36.5%	24.7%	2.8%	6.1%	15.9%	11.8%	16.3%
Refsnyder	+4.0	+3.0	+0.0	+0.9	+2.0	+1.0	-8.9
Verlander	+4.0	+1.2	+0.1	+0.4	+0.8	+2.7	-0.8

Rob Refsnyder is worse vs right-handed pitching. Justin Verlander is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Refsnyder has a C grade vs this particular release point.

Justin Verlander throws a 4-seam fastball 50% of the time. Rob Refsnyder has an A- grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

50%

Slider (R)

27%

Curve (R)

19%

14% of Justin Verlander's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Rob Refsnyder has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 14%

+2%

Strong Challenge 7%

+2%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Likely Ball 20%

+0%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Weak Challenge 6%

-2%

Non-Competitive 8%

-4%

28% of Justin Verlander's pitches are classified as Extreme Ride, which is 25% higher than the MLB average. Rob Refsnyder has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Ride 28%

+25%

Breaking (R) 46%

+15%

Fast Velo 28%

+13%

Small Break 21%

+10%

14.4% of Rob Refsnyder's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 0.3% lower than the league average. Justin Verlander strikes out 18.2% of the batters he faces, which is 5.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

14%

Strikeout -0.3% +5.2% 3%

Walk +1.9% -2.7% 40%

In Play -1.6% -2.5% 39%

On Base +3.1% -7.7% 31%

Hit +1.1% -5.0% 14%

Single +0.3% -2.3% 13%

2B / 3B +0.6% -2.8% 3%

Home Run +0.2% +0.1%

39.9% of Rob Refsnyder's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.4% higher than the league average. Justin Verlander induces Standard Grounders at a 26.8% rate, which is 7.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.8% +0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder +5.4% -7.6% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.5% -1.4% 14%

Low Screamer -2.0% +1.3% 9%

Rising Liner +4.2% +0.8% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.8% -0.2% 3%

Likely Homer -2.5% -0.2% 1%

No Doubter -0.2% -0.5% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.4% +4.7% 3%

Pop up -1.3% +3.0%

20.4% of Rob Refsnyder's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.9% lower than the league average. 21.0% of batted balls allowed by Justin Verlander are hit at above 100 mph, which is 3.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -0.7% -0.1% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.5% +1.5% 18%

87 to 93 mph +1.2% +2.6% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.8% -0.7% 24%

Above 100 mph -3.9% -3.3%

9.8% of Rob Refsnyder's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.7% lower than the league average. 12.9% of batted balls allowed by Rob Refsnyder are hit at this angle, which is 1.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.0% -3.8% 12%

-10 to 0° +2.5% -3.2% 8%

1 to 6° -2.6% -2.6% 18%

7 to 18° +8.2% +0.6% 15%

19 to 28° -2.4% -0.8% 11%

29 to 38° -1.7% +1.5% 7%

39 to 50° +1.3% +3.4% 8%

Above 50° -3.4% +4.9%

Rob Refsnyder has 2 plate appearances against Justin Verlander in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 2 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.09	0.00	0.08	0.01			0.046

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-08-21	Strikeout
2024-08-21	Lineout		8%	1%	91%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

On the Way to the Plate

Contact and Outcomes

History