Matchup Machine

Jesse Winker

matchup for Yu Darvish

369th out of 436 (Worst 16%)

Yu Darvish

matchup for Jesse Winker

395th out of 568 (Worst 31%)

Moderate advantage for Winker

Jesse Winker has a 31.9% chance of reaching base vs Yu Darvish, which is 3.8% lower than Winker's typical expectations, and 2.7% higher than batters facing Darvish.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	31.9%	20.9%	3.7%	4.8%	12.3%	11.0%	22.5%
Winker	-3.8	-0.7	+0.9	0.0	-1.5	-3.1	+0.3
Darvish	+2.7	-1.3	+0.4	-0.7	-1.1	+4.0	-0.8

Jesse Winker is better vs right-handed pitching. Yu Darvish is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Winker has a B+ grade vs this particular release point.

Yu Darvish throws a Cutter 26% of the time. Jesse Winker has a D grade against right-handed Cutters

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Cutter (R)

26%

Slider (R)

26%

4-Seam (R)

21%

Sinker (R)

12%

Splitter (R)

Curve (R)

14% of Yu Darvish's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Jesse Winker has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 14%

+3%

Strong Challenge 8%

+3%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Weak Challenge 8%

+0%

Chaser 6%

Fringe Miss 12%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Likely Ball 17%

-2%

28% of Yu Darvish's pitches are classified as Medium Drop, which is 15% higher than the MLB average. Jesse Winker has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Drop 28%

+15%

Small Break 20%

+9%

12.0% of Jesse Winker's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 4.3% lower than the league average. Yu Darvish strikes out 20.3% of the batters he faces, which is 6.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Strikeout -4.3% +6.7% 2%

Walk +5.1% -1.6% 40%

In Play -0.8% -5.1% 39%

On Base +7.2% -4.8% 31%

Hit +2.1% -3.2% 14%

Single +0.6% -1.6% 13%

2B / 3B +1.1% -1.2% 3%

Home Run +0.4% -0.5%

35.1% of Jesse Winker's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 0.7% higher than the league average. Yu Darvish induces Standard Grounders at a 34.2% rate, which is 0.2% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.7% +0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder +0.7% -0.2% 7%

Hard Grounder +2.6% -0.6% 14%

Low Screamer -1.9% -0.9% 9%

Rising Liner +1.6% -1.0% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.5% +0.5% 3%

Likely Homer -0.2% -1.1% 1%

No Doubter -0.1% +1.0% 20%

Routine Flyout -3.6% +1.7% 3%

Pop up +1.2% +0.4%

26.9% of Jesse Winker's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 2.7% higher than the league average. 21.5% of batted balls allowed by Yu Darvish are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +0.2% -1.1% 21%

75 to 86 mph -2.1% +2.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph +1.8% +1.0% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.6% +0.8% 24%

Above 100 mph +2.7% -2.8%

12.2% of Jesse Winker's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.7% higher than the league average. 12.4% of batted balls allowed by Jesse Winker are hit at this angle, which is 1.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +0.2% -1.1% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.8% -2.4% 8%

1 to 6° +2.3% +0.5% 18%

7 to 18° +1.3% -0.3% 15%

19 to 28° -2.4% -0.5% 11%

29 to 38° +0.7% +1.0% 7%

39 to 50° -1.6% 0.0% 8%

Above 50° +0.3% +2.9%

Jesse Winker has 3 plate appearances against Yu Darvish in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 3 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.73	0.00	0.03	0.69			0.242

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2022-09-13	Flyout		3%	16%	81%
2022-09-13	Strikeout
2022-09-13	Groundout			54%	46%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

On the Way to the Plate

Contact and Outcomes

History