Matchup Machine

Alex Bregman

matchup for Yu Darvish

414th out of 436 (Worst 5%)

Yu Darvish

matchup for Alex Bregman

360th out of 568 (Worst 37%)

Strong advantage for Bregman

Alex Bregman has a 31.9% chance of reaching base vs Yu Darvish, which is 1.7% lower than Bregman's typical expectations, and 2.7% higher than batters facing Darvish.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	31.9%	24.4%	3.4%	5.5%	15.6%	7.5%	12.7%
Bregman	-1.7	+0.1	+0.1	+0.1	-0.2	-1.8	-1.3
Darvish	+2.7	+2.3	+0.1	0.0	+2.2	+0.4	-10.7

Alex Bregman is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Yu Darvish is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Bregman has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Yu Darvish throws a Cutter 26% of the time. Alex Bregman has a B grade against right-handed Cutters

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Cutter (R)

26%

Slider (R)

26%

4-Seam (R)

21%

Sinker (R)

12%

Splitter (R)

Curve (R)

14% of Yu Darvish's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Alex Bregman has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 14%

+3%

Strong Challenge 8%

+3%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Weak Challenge 8%

+0%

Chaser 6%

Fringe Miss 12%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Likely Ball 17%

-2%

28% of Yu Darvish's pitches are classified as Medium Drop, which is 15% higher than the MLB average. Alex Bregman has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Drop 28%

+15%

Small Break 20%

+9%

8.2% of Alex Bregman's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 10.7% lower than the league average. Yu Darvish strikes out 20.3% of the batters he faces, which is 6.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

18%

Strikeout -10.7% +6.7% 5%

Walk -2.3% -1.6% 34%

In Play +13.0% -5.1% 39%

On Base +4.8% -4.8% 31%

Hit +7.1% -3.2% 14%

Single +2.4% -1.6% 13%

2B / 3B +2.5% -1.2% 3%

Home Run +2.2% -0.5%

27.8% of Alex Bregman's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 6.6% lower than the league average. Yu Darvish induces Standard Grounders at a 34.2% rate, which is 0.2% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.1% +0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder -6.6% -0.2% 7%

Hard Grounder -1.2% -0.6% 14%

Low Screamer +2.9% -0.9% 9%

Rising Liner +0.1% -1.0% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.1% +0.5% 3%

Likely Homer -0.4% -1.1% 1%

No Doubter -0.1% +1.0% 20%

Routine Flyout +3.7% +1.7% 3%

Pop up +1.7% +0.4%

20.1% of Alex Bregman's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 4.2% lower than the league average. 21.5% of batted balls allowed by Yu Darvish are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.2% -1.1% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.3% +2.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph +1.7% +1.0% 19%

94 to 99 mph +2.4% +0.8% 24%

Above 100 mph -4.2% -2.8%

12.6% of Alex Bregman's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.2% higher than the league average. 12.4% of batted balls allowed by Alex Bregman are hit at this angle, which is 1.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -4.5% -1.1% 12%

-10 to 0° -1.7% -2.4% 8%

1 to 6° -1.0% +0.5% 18%

7 to 18° -0.1% -0.3% 15%

19 to 28° +1.4% -0.5% 11%

29 to 38° +1.2% +1.0% 7%

39 to 50° +1.5% 0.0% 8%

Above 50° +3.2% +2.9%

Alex Bregman has 3 plate appearances against Yu Darvish in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 3 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.12	0.00	0.00	0.12			0.039

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-09-16	Strikeout
2024-09-16	Groundout			6%	94%
2024-09-16	Groundout			6%	94%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

On the Way to the Plate

Contact and Outcomes

History