Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Marcell Ozuna

matchup for Paul Skenes

351st out of 436 (Worst 20%)

Paul Skenes

matchup for Marcell Ozuna

534th out of 568 (Worst 6%)

Moderate advantage for Skenes

Marcell Ozuna has a 30.1% chance of reaching base vs Paul Skenes, which is 5.1% lower than Ozuna's typical expectations, and 2.1% higher than batters facing Skenes.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	30.1%	20.8%	2.4%	4.9%	13.6%	9.2%	35.6%
Ozuna	-5.1	-2.1	-1.0	-0.5	-0.6	-3.0	+8.8
Skenes	+2.1	+1.3	+0.4	+0.6	+0.3	+0.8	+2.3

Marcell Ozuna is better vs right-handed pitching. Paul Skenes is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Ozuna has an A grade vs this particular release point.

Paul Skenes throws a 4-seam fastball 40% of the time. Marcell Ozuna has an A+ grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

40%

Slider (R)

16%

Splitter (R)

16%

Sinker (R)

13%

Curve (R)

10%

Changeup (R)

13% of Paul Skenes's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Marcell Ozuna has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 13%

+2%

Edge Painter 19%

+2%

Likely Ball 21%

+1%

Weak Challenge 9%

+1%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Chaser 6%

+0%

Fringe Miss 12%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Meatball 2%

-4%

33% of Paul Skenes's pitches are classified as Extreme Fast Velocity, which is 30% higher than the MLB average. Marcell Ozuna has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Fast Velo 33%

+30%

Extreme Break 34%

+19%

Low Ride 36%

+13%

Offspeed (R) 21%

+10%

15.8% of Marcell Ozuna's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.0% higher than the league average. Paul Skenes strikes out 23.0% of the batters he faces, which is 10.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +2.0% +10.0% 3%

Walk +2.3% -1.3% 41%

In Play -4.3% -8.8% 39%

On Base +4.2% -5.1% 31%

Hit +1.9% -3.9% 14%

Single -0.6% -1.7% 13%

2B / 3B -0.3% -1.3% 3%

Home Run +2.7% -0.9%

31.3% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.1% lower than the league average. Paul Skenes induces Standard Grounders at a 43.8% rate, which is 9.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.1% -0.5% 34%

Standard Grounder -3.1% +9.4% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.2% +2.1% 14%

Low Screamer -1.4% -0.5% 9%

Rising Liner -0.7% -3.3% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.7% -1.7% 3%

Likely Homer +0.9% -0.1% 1%

No Doubter +1.5% -1.2% 20%

Routine Flyout -0.2% -6.7% 3%

Pop up +0.0% +2.5%

33.9% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 9.6% higher than the league average. 21.7% of batted balls allowed by Paul Skenes are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -2.1% +4.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph -2.1% +1.8% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.0% -3.5% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.3% -0.2% 24%

Above 100 mph +9.6% -2.6%

12.0% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.5% higher than the league average. 5.4% of batted balls allowed by Marcell Ozuna are hit at this angle, which is 6.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -3.0% +9.8% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.4% +0.8% 8%

1 to 6° +1.2% +2.0% 18%

7 to 18° +0.2% -5.6% 15%

19 to 28° +0.8% -4.1% 11%

29 to 38° +0.5% -6.0% 7%

39 to 50° 0.0% +0.2% 8%

Above 50° +0.6% +2.9%

Marcell Ozuna has 3 plate appearances against Paul Skenes in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 3 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.60	0.00	0.06	0.54			0.201

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-06-29	GIDP		2%	16%	82%
2024-06-29	GIDP		4%	38%	58%
2024-06-29	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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