Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Marcell Ozuna

matchup for S. Arrighetti

397th out of 436 (Worst 9%)

Spencer Arrighetti

matchup for Marcell Ozuna

347th out of 568 (Worst 39%)

Strong advantage for Ozuna

Marcell Ozuna has a 34.4% chance of reaching base vs Spencer Arrighetti, which is 0.8% lower than Ozuna's typical expectations, and 4.3% higher than batters facing Arrighetti.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	34.4%	21.9%	4.0%	5.3%	12.7%	12.5%	31.9%
Ozuna	-0.8	-1.0	+0.6	-0.1	-1.5	+0.2	+5.1
Arrighetti	+4.3	+1.3	+1.0	0.0	+0.3	+3.0	+1.9

Marcell Ozuna is better vs right-handed pitching. Spencer Arrighetti is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Ozuna has an A grade vs this particular release point.

Spencer Arrighetti throws a 4-seam fastball 41% of the time. Marcell Ozuna has an A+ grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

41%

Curve (R)

20%

Cutter (R)

19%

Slider (R)

11%

Changeup (R)

13% of Spencer Arrighetti's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 1% higher than the MLB average. Marcell Ozuna has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 13%

+1%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Meatball 7%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Fringe Miss 12%

Non-Competitive 12%

-1%

Likely Ball 18%

-1%

Chaser 5%

-1%

Weak Challenge 7%

-2%

21% of Spencer Arrighetti's pitches are classified as Large Break Toward Third Base, which is 16% higher than the MLB average. Marcell Ozuna has a C+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Large Break 21%

+16%

Extreme Slow Velo 19%

+14%

15.8% of Marcell Ozuna's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.0% higher than the league average. Spencer Arrighetti strikes out 19.4% of the batters he faces, which is 4.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +2.0% +4.8% 3%

Walk +2.3% +1.4% 41%

In Play -4.3% -6.2% 39%

On Base +4.2% -2.2% 31%

Hit +1.9% -3.6% 14%

Single -0.6% -2.2% 13%

2B / 3B -0.3% -1.7% 3%

Home Run +2.7% +0.3%

31.3% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.1% lower than the league average. Spencer Arrighetti induces Standard Grounders at a 31.7% rate, which is 2.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.1% -0.8% 34%

Standard Grounder -3.1% -2.8% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.2% -1.0% 14%

Low Screamer -1.4% -0.2% 9%

Rising Liner -0.7% +0.6% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.7% -0.9% 3%

Likely Homer +0.9% +2.5% 1%

No Doubter +1.5% +1.1% 20%

Routine Flyout -0.2% -0.6% 3%

Pop up +0.0% +1.9%

33.9% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 9.6% higher than the league average. 23.4% of batted balls allowed by Spencer Arrighetti are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -2.1% -2.0% 21%

75 to 86 mph -2.1% +2.4% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.0% -2.0% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.3% +2.4% 24%

Above 100 mph +9.6% -0.9%

12.0% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.5% higher than the league average. 12.0% of batted balls allowed by Marcell Ozuna are hit at this angle, which is 0.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -3.0% -3.7% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.4% -3.3% 8%

1 to 6° +1.2% -1.6% 18%

7 to 18° +0.2% +3.5% 15%

19 to 28° +0.8% +1.3% 11%

29 to 38° +0.5% +0.6% 7%

39 to 50° 0.0% +2.0% 8%

Above 50° +0.6% +1.2%

Marcell Ozuna has 2 plate appearances against Spencer Arrighetti in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 2 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.26	0.01	0.24	0.02			0.132

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-04-15	Strikeout
2024-04-15	Flyout		24%	2%	74%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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