Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Marcell Ozuna

matchup for Angel Zerpa

384th out of 436 (Worst 12%)

Angel Zerpa

matchup for Marcell Ozuna

240th out of 568 (Best 43%)

Strong advantage for Ozuna

Marcell Ozuna has a 37.7% chance of reaching base vs Angel Zerpa, which is 2.5% higher than Ozuna's typical expectations, and 3.3% higher than batters facing Zerpa.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	37.7%	24.7%	2.9%	3.8%	18.0%	13.0%	23.6%
Ozuna	+2.5	+1.8	-0.5	-1.6	+3.9	+0.7	-3.3
Zerpa	+3.3	+1.0	+0.6	-0.2	+0.6	+2.3	+2.1

Marcell Ozuna is worse vs left-handed pitching. Angel Zerpa is left handed with a horizontal release toward the first base side. Ozuna has a C+ grade vs this particular release point.

Angel Zerpa throws a Sinker 34% of the time. Marcell Ozuna has an A grade against left-handed Sinkers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Sinker (L)

34%

4-Seam (L)

27%

Slider (L)

25%

Changeup (L)

14%

13% of Angel Zerpa's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 4% higher than the MLB average. Marcell Ozuna has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 13%

+4%

Mid Challenge 13%

+1%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Edge Painter 17%

+0%

Non-Competitive 13%

+0%

Chaser 5%

-1%

Meatball 3%

-3%

Likely Ball 15%

-4%

28% of Angel Zerpa's pitches are classified as Fast Velocity, which is 18% higher than the MLB average. Marcell Ozuna has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Fast Velo 28%

+18%

Extreme Break 31%

+15%

Small Drop 23%

+10%

15.8% of Marcell Ozuna's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.0% higher than the league average. Angel Zerpa strikes out 14.9% of the batters he faces, which is 1.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +2.0% -1.7% 3%

Walk +2.3% -0.7% 41%

In Play -4.3% +2.4% 39%

On Base +4.2% +0.8% 31%

Hit +1.9% +1.4% 14%

Single -0.6% +1.1% 13%

2B / 3B -0.3% +1.5% 3%

Home Run +2.7% -1.1%

31.3% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.1% lower than the league average. Angel Zerpa induces Standard Grounders at a 47.0% rate, which is 12.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.1% +0.7% 34%

Standard Grounder -3.1% +12.6% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.2% +2.3% 14%

Low Screamer -1.4% -6.8% 9%

Rising Liner -0.7% +0.4% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.7% +0.1% 3%

Likely Homer +0.9% -0.7% 1%

No Doubter +1.5% -0.3% 20%

Routine Flyout -0.2% -6.8% 3%

Pop up +0.0% -1.5%

33.9% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 9.6% higher than the league average. 26.5% of batted balls allowed by Angel Zerpa are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -2.1% -2.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph -2.1% -3.6% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.0% -1.8% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.3% +5.4% 24%

Above 100 mph +9.6% +2.2%

12.0% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.5% higher than the league average. 6.8% of batted balls allowed by Marcell Ozuna are hit at this angle, which is 4.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -3.0% +11.8% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.4% +3.9% 8%

1 to 6° +1.2% +1.0% 18%

7 to 18° +0.2% -2.3% 15%

19 to 28° +0.8% -3.6% 11%

29 to 38° +0.5% -4.6% 7%

39 to 50° 0.0% -4.3% 8%

Above 50° +0.6% -1.8%

Marcell Ozuna has 1 plate appearance against Angel Zerpa in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 1 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00			0.000

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-09-29	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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