Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Marcell Ozuna

matchup for Tarik Skubal

316th out of 436 (Worst 28%)

Tarik Skubal

matchup for Marcell Ozuna

561st out of 568 (Worst 1%)

Strong advantage for Skubal

Marcell Ozuna has a 26.7% chance of reaching base vs Tarik Skubal, which is 8.4% lower than Ozuna's typical expectations, and 2.0% higher than batters facing Skubal.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	26.7%	20.9%	2.5%	4.2%	14.3%	5.8%	35.2%
Ozuna	-8.4	-2.0	-0.9	-1.2	+0.1	-6.4	+8.4
Skubal	+2.0	+1.0	+0.4	+0.5	+0.1	+1.0	+4.7

Marcell Ozuna is worse vs left-handed pitching. Tarik Skubal is left handed with an over-the-top delivery. Ozuna has an A grade vs this particular release point.

Tarik Skubal throws a 4-seam fastball 37% of the time. Marcell Ozuna has an A- grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

37%

Slider (L)

21%

Changeup (L)

20%

Sinker (L)

16%

Kn-Curve (L)

15% of Tarik Skubal's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 4% higher than the MLB average. Marcell Ozuna has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 15%

+4%

Weak Challenge 11%

+2%

Edge Painter 19%

+1%

Strong Challenge 6%

+0%

Chaser 6%

Fringe Miss 12%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Meatball 3%

-2%

Likely Ball 17%

-3%

16% of Tarik Skubal's pitches are classified as Very Fast Velocity, which is 13% higher than the MLB average. Marcell Ozuna has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Very Fast Velo 16%

+13%

Medium Ride 23%

+9%

15.8% of Marcell Ozuna's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.0% higher than the league average. Tarik Skubal strikes out 20.6% of the batters he faces, which is 6.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +2.0% +6.9% 3%

Walk +2.3% -3.3% 41%

In Play -4.3% -3.6% 39%

On Base +4.2% -5.9% 31%

Hit +1.9% -2.6% 14%

Single -0.6% -1.3% 13%

2B / 3B -0.3% -1.1% 3%

Home Run +2.7% -0.2%

31.3% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.1% lower than the league average. Tarik Skubal induces Standard Grounders at a 38.3% rate, which is 3.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.1% -0.2% 34%

Standard Grounder -3.1% +3.9% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.2% -2.3% 14%

Low Screamer -1.4% -0.6% 9%

Rising Liner -0.7% -0.7% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.7% -2.1% 3%

Likely Homer +0.9% +1.2% 1%

No Doubter +1.5% -0.5% 20%

Routine Flyout -0.2% -0.1% 3%

Pop up +0.0% +1.4%

33.9% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 9.6% higher than the league average. 25.0% of batted balls allowed by Tarik Skubal are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -2.1% +2.0% 21%

75 to 86 mph -2.1% -1.8% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.0% +1.3% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.3% -2.1% 24%

Above 100 mph +9.6% +0.7%

12.0% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.5% higher than the league average. 9.6% of batted balls allowed by Marcell Ozuna are hit at this angle, which is 1.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -3.0% +0.9% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.4% +1.3% 8%

1 to 6° +1.2% -0.2% 18%

7 to 18° +0.2% -1.1% 15%

19 to 28° +0.8% -1.3% 11%

29 to 38° +0.5% -1.9% 7%

39 to 50° 0.0% +0.9% 8%

Above 50° +0.6% +1.5%

Marcell Ozuna has 3 plate appearances against Tarik Skubal in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 1 with 2 walks

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00			0.000

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-06-19	Walk
2024-06-19	Strikeout
2024-06-19	Walk

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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