Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Marcell Ozuna

matchup for Jesus Luzardo

424th out of 436 (Worst 3%)

Jesus Luzardo

matchup for Marcell Ozuna

168th out of 568 (Best 30%)

Extreme advantage for Ozuna

Marcell Ozuna has a 36.2% chance of reaching base vs Jesus Luzardo, which is 1.1% higher than Ozuna's typical expectations, and 4.6% higher than batters facing Luzardo.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	36.2%	23.1%	4.1%	5.4%	13.5%	13.2%	23.2%
Ozuna	+1.1	+0.2	+0.8	+0.0	-0.7	+0.9	-3.6
Luzardo	+4.6	0.0	+1.3	+0.1	-1.5	+4.7	+2.4

Marcell Ozuna is worse vs left-handed pitching. Jesus Luzardo is left handed with a horizontal release toward the first base side. Ozuna has a C+ grade vs this particular release point.

Jesus Luzardo throws a 4-seam fastball 33% of the time. Marcell Ozuna has an A- grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

33%

Changeup (L)

22%

Sinker (L)

16%

Curve (L)

15%

Slider (L)

14%

21% of Jesus Luzardo's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 1% higher than the MLB average. Marcell Ozuna has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 21%

+1%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Weak Challenge 9%

+1%

Mid Challenge 12%

+0%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Non-Competitive 12%

Edge Painter 17%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Meatball 4%

-2%

45% of Jesus Luzardo's pitches are classified as Extreme Break Toward Third Base, which is 29% higher than the MLB average. Marcell Ozuna has a B- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Break 45%

+29%

Very Fast Velo 24%

+21%

Low Ride 34%

+10%

Offspeed (L) 22%

+9%

15.8% of Marcell Ozuna's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.0% higher than the league average. Jesus Luzardo strikes out 17.1% of the batters he faces, which is 3.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +2.0% +3.8% 3%

Walk +2.3% -0.6% 41%

In Play -4.3% -3.3% 39%

On Base +4.2% -2.5% 31%

Hit +1.9% -2.0% 14%

Single -0.6% -1.3% 13%

2B / 3B -0.3% -0.9% 3%

Home Run +2.7% +0.3%

31.3% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.1% lower than the league average. Jesus Luzardo induces Standard Grounders at a 30.2% rate, which is 4.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.1% +0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder -3.1% -4.3% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.2% +0.0% 14%

Low Screamer -1.4% +0.1% 9%

Rising Liner -0.7% +0.9% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.7% -0.8% 3%

Likely Homer +0.9% +1.9% 1%

No Doubter +1.5% -0.3% 20%

Routine Flyout -0.2% +1.9% 3%

Pop up +0.0% +0.4%

33.9% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 9.6% higher than the league average. 23.6% of batted balls allowed by Jesus Luzardo are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -2.1% -1.8% 21%

75 to 86 mph -2.1% +0.1% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.0% -0.8% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.3% +3.2% 24%

Above 100 mph +9.6% -0.7%

12.0% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.5% higher than the league average. 12.1% of batted balls allowed by Marcell Ozuna are hit at this angle, which is 0.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -3.0% -3.6% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.4% +0.2% 8%

1 to 6° +1.2% +1.0% 18%

7 to 18° +0.2% +0.1% 15%

19 to 28° +0.8% -2.2% 11%

29 to 38° +0.5% +0.6% 7%

39 to 50° 0.0% +1.9% 8%

Above 50° +0.6% +2.1%

Marcell Ozuna has 11 plate appearances against Jesus Luzardo in the last 3 years. He is 3 for 10 with a home run, a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	11	10	3	1	0	2	3	1	0.300
Expected From Contact →			3.31	1.40	1.19	0.73			0.331

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-04-14	Single	43%	30%		26%
2024-04-14	Pop Out				100%
2024-04-14	Groundout			14%	86%
2023-09-17	Groundout			50%	49%
2023-09-17	Single		81%	8%	10%
2023-09-17	Strikeout
2023-05-04	Flyout	1%	2%		96%
2023-05-04	Home Run	94%	4%		1%
2023-05-04	Walk
2022-04-24	Strikeout
2022-04-24	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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