Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Marcell Ozuna

matchup for Aaron Civale

376th out of 436 (Worst 14%)

Aaron Civale

matchup for Marcell Ozuna

400th out of 568 (Worst 30%)

Moderate advantage for Ozuna

Marcell Ozuna has a 32.2% chance of reaching base vs Aaron Civale, which is 3.0% lower than Ozuna's typical expectations, and 3.1% higher than batters facing Civale.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	32.2%	23.0%	3.3%	6.3%	13.5%	9.2%	28.1%
Ozuna	-3.0	+0.1	0.0	+0.9	-0.7	-3.1	+1.2
Civale	+3.1	+1.9	+0.5	+1.3	+0.1	+1.2	+5.1

Marcell Ozuna is better vs right-handed pitching. Aaron Civale is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Ozuna has an A grade vs this particular release point.

Aaron Civale throws a Cutter 32% of the time. Marcell Ozuna has an A grade against right-handed Cutters

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Cutter (R)

32%

Sinker (R)

21%

Curve (R)

20%

4-Seam (R)

11%

Slider (R)

10%

21% of Aaron Civale's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Marcell Ozuna has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 21%

+2%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Strong Challenge 5%

Weak Challenge 8%

Meatball 6%

Mid Challenge 10%

-1%

Non-Competitive 10%

-2%

20% of Aaron Civale's pitches are classified as Extreme Drop, which is 15% higher than the MLB average. Marcell Ozuna has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Drop 20%

+15%

Medium Break 24%

+15%

Extreme Slow Velo 16%

+11%

Fastball (R) 64%

+10%

15.8% of Marcell Ozuna's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.0% higher than the league average. Aaron Civale strikes out 16.1% of the batters he faces, which is 0.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +2.0% +0.5% 3%

Walk +2.3% -1.2% 41%

In Play -4.3% +0.7% 39%

On Base +4.2% -1.0% 31%

Hit +1.9% +0.2% 14%

Single -0.6% +0.0% 13%

2B / 3B -0.3% +0.4% 3%

Home Run +2.7% -0.2%

31.3% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.1% lower than the league average. Aaron Civale induces Standard Grounders at a 35.4% rate, which is 1.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.1% +0.0% 34%

Standard Grounder -3.1% +1.0% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.2% -2.1% 14%

Low Screamer -1.4% -1.8% 9%

Rising Liner -0.7% +2.2% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.7% -1.5% 3%

Likely Homer +0.9% 0.0% 1%

No Doubter +1.5% -0.6% 20%

Routine Flyout -0.2% +0.8% 3%

Pop up +0.0% +1.9%

33.9% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 9.6% higher than the league average. 21.9% of batted balls allowed by Aaron Civale are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -2.1% +1.0% 21%

75 to 86 mph -2.1% +2.6% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.0% +0.4% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.3% -1.7% 24%

Above 100 mph +9.6% -2.3%

12.0% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.5% higher than the league average. 11.2% of batted balls allowed by Marcell Ozuna are hit at this angle, which is 0.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%